Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Delaware @ MTSU DEL @ MTSU

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

2-4  |  Road

30
FINAL
Tue, Oct 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

3-3  |  Home

33
Key Game
Josh Cupitt
KEY GAME

Josh Cupitt

#39 | Punter
@
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
Player
Josh Cupitt None-None
Ashton Logan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DELAWARE
61%
📊
MTSU
39%
▲ Edge: +7.70% (DEL)
DELAWARE 53% Book Odds: -113
MTSU 50% Book Odds: +100
Book Implied: 53.10% / 50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.5
Projected
Book Total
49.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 49.0 50%
Under 49.0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
DELAWARE
Book Spread
-1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Delaware)
DelawareDEL (-1) 0 MTSUMTSU (+1)
Delaware Blue Hens (-1) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Delaware Cover

62.6%

MTSU Cover

37.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEL -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEL)

DEL By 1-6 points

16.9%

DEL By 7-13 points

18.3%

MTSU By 1-6 points

14.4%

MTSU By 7-13 points

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
26.5
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 25
22
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
24
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 25
28
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Delaware Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim MTSU Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Delaware (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.5
C
Sim MTSU (+1) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u49.0 Loss
Proj Total: 48.5
D
Sim o49.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 13, 2026 DEL @ MTSU 30 - 33
Oct 22, 2025 MTSU @ DEL 28 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +63.8% more
Delaware: 1.5 vs Middle Tennessee: 0.6
Total Yards (L5) +15.2% more
Delaware: 335.2 vs Middle Tennessee: 284.1
First Downs (L5) +8.8% more
Delaware: 17.4 vs Middle Tennessee: 15.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEL Score 26.5 30
MTSU Score 22.0 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.9 / 17.4 22.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 108.4 / 102.8 105.0 / 70.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.22 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 284.1 / 335.2 396.0 / 391.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -122 / +102 → -113 / +100
54%TICKETS46%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1 / +1 ↑
51%TICKETS49%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 49 ↑
75%TICKETS25%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEL
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: +2.8
MTSU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEL
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: +2.8
MTSU
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEL
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.8
MTSU
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
DEL
MTSU
DEL
ML
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
ATS
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
TTL
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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