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SAN JOSE

SHARKSSJ

2-1-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Mon, Oct 5 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

1-2-0  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Yaroslav Askarov
GOALTENDER

Yaroslav Askarov

#30 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Yaroslav Askarov None-None 5.02 0.808 --
Jake Oettinger None-None 0.00 1.000 1
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.02 GAA Ldr 0.00
0.808 Save % Ldr 1.000
-- SO Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
SHARKS
19%
📊
STARS
81%
▲ Edge: +13.90% (DAL)
SHARKS 36% Book Odds: +178
STARS 67% Book Odds: -200
Book Implied: 36% / 66.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 6.5 27%
Under 6.5 73%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
SAN JOSE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (San Jose)
SharksSJ (+1.5) 0 StarsDAL (-1.5)
San Jose Sharks (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sharks Cover

75.8%

Stars Cover

24.2%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around SJ +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJ)

SJ By 1 goal

9.8%

SJ By 2-3 goals

6.6%

DAL By 1 goal

19.4%

DAL By 2-3 goals

33.3%

AI Model Projected Score
1.8
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 2.50
3.2
DALLAS
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
3
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 2.50
2
DALLAS
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Stars Win
81% Win Prob
A
Sim Sharks Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sharks (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.4
D
Sim Sharks (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2026 SJ @ DAL 0 - 5
Jan 10, 2026 DAL @ SJ 4 - 5
Dec 18, 2025 DAL @ SJ 5 - 3
Dec 5, 2025 SJ @ DAL 1 - 4
Feb 8, 2025 DAL @ SJ 8 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +14.0% more
Dallas: 26.4 vs San Jose: 23.2
Faceoff % (L5) +12.8%
Dallas: 56.8% vs San Jose: 44.0%
Takeaways (L5) +54.2% more
San Jose: 6.3 vs Dallas: 2.9
Power Play % (L5) +33.3%
San Jose: 33.3% vs Dallas: 0.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJ Score 1.8 0
DAL Score 3.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 17.0 / 17.7 13.0 / 21.0
Faceoff % 56.8 / 44.0 56.8 / 43.2
Hits 26.4 / 23.2 11.0 / 30.0
Power Play % 0.0 / 3330.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 26.7 / 29.7 26.0 / 13.0
Takeaways 2.9 / 6.3 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +140 / -166 → +178 / -200 ↑
16%TICKETS84%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
54%TICKETS46%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
80%TICKETS20%
90%MONEY10%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
SJ
DAL
SJ
ML
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
ATS
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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