PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
0-2-2 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
2-1-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Dan Vladar
#80 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar | None-None | 3.14 | 0.914 | -- |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 1.00 | 0.929 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.14
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.914
Save %
Ldr 0.929
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
30%
LIGHTNING
70%
▲ Edge: +1.40% (TB)
FLYERS
34%
Book Odds: +192
LIGHTNING
69%
Book Odds: -217
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.0
42%
Under 6.0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PHI +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1 goal
9.2%
PHI By 2-3 goals
6.1%
TB By 1 goal
19.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2.20
Tampa Bay
3.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2.20
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Lightning
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Lightning
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Flyers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.5
B
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 5, 2026
PHI @ TB
1 - 4
Jan 12, 2026
TB @ PHI
5 - 1
Jan 10, 2026
TB @ PHI
7 - 2
Nov 24, 2025
PHI @ TB
0 - 3
Mar 17, 2025
PHI @ TB
0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+33.4% more
Tampa Bay: 26.7
vs
Philadelphia: 20.0
Takeaways (L5)
+31.1% more
Tampa Bay: 5.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.5%
Philadelphia: 55.1%
vs
Tampa Bay: 46.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
2.0
1
TB Score
3.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.0 / 16.3
11.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
46.6 / 55.1
46.0 / 54.0
Hits
30.4 / 31.4
15.0 / 23.0
Power Play %
0.0 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.7 / 20.0
36.0 / 14.0
Takeaways
5.0 / 3.8
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +145 / -175
→
+192 / -217
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
6
↑
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
PHI
TB
PHI
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
TTL
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
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