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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

88-74  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Oct 1 • 8:00 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

94-68  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Chris Sale
STARTING PITCHER

Chris Sale

#51 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jhoan Duran None-None 9.00 -- 1.0 2
Chris Sale None-None 3.52 -- 1.1 3
None-None W-L None-None
9.00 ERA Ldr 3.52
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
48%
📊
BRAVES
52%
PHILLIES 52% Book Odds: -106
BRAVES 53% Book Odds: -114
Book Implied: 51.50% / 53.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 65%
Under 7.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Atlanta)
PhilliesPHI (-1.5) 0 BravesATL (+1.5)
Atlanta Braves (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

30.9%

Braves Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

PHI By 1-2 runs

13.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

7.8%

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
5.5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 PHI @ ATL 2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026 PHI @ ATL 4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026 PHI @ ATL 3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026 PHI @ ATL 9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 PHI @ ATL 2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Atlanta ATL
2 ▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.724
OPS
▲ .757
3 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +60.0% more
Atlanta: 1.1 vs Philadelphia: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season) +42.9% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Strikeouts (L5) +13.5% more
Atlanta: 8.6 vs Philadelphia: 7.5
On-Base Pct (Season) +3.8%
Atlanta: 32.4% vs Philadelphia: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 3.5 2
ATL Score 5.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.8 / 7.3 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.5 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 7.5 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 12.1 15.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.1 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -114 / -105 → -106 / -114 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
38%TICKETS62%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 7.5 ↑
95%TICKETS5%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHI
ATL
PHI
ML
46% 77-90
59% 97-67
54% 90-78
49% 80-84
ATS
57% 96-71
65% 107-57
52% 87-81
51% 83-81
TTL
53% 83-73-11
57% 88-67-9
49% 76-80-11
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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