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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

88-74  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Sep 30 • 2:00 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

94-68  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Cristopher Sanchez
STARTING PITCHER

Cristopher Sanchez

#61 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tyler Mahle
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Mahle

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cristopher Sanchez 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
Tyler Mahle 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
0-0 W-L 0-0
0.00 ERA 0.00
0.00 WHIP 0.00
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
48%
📊
BRAVES
52%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (ATL)
PHILLIES 53% Book Odds: -114
BRAVES 52% Book Odds: -106
Book Implied: 53.30% / 51.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0 70%
Under 7.0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Atlanta)
PhilliesPHI (-1.5) 0 BravesATL (+1.5)
Atlanta Braves (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

36.3%

Braves Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

PHI By 1-2 runs

15.3%

PHI By 3-4 runs

9.5%

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ATL By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.20
5.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.20
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 PHI @ ATL 2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026 PHI @ ATL 4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026 PHI @ ATL 3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026 PHI @ ATL 9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 PHI @ ATL 2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Atlanta ATL
2 ▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.724
OPS
▲ .757
3 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +42.9% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Home Runs (L5) +40.0% more
Atlanta: 1.2 vs Philadelphia: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5) +32.4% more
Atlanta: 8.3 vs Philadelphia: 6.3
On-Base Pct (Season) +3.8%
Atlanta: 32.4% vs Philadelphia: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 3.8 4
ATL Score 5.2 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +158 / -193 → -114 / -106 ↓
55%TICKETS45%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 7
86%TICKETS14%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHI
ATL
PHI
ML
46% 77-90
59% 97-67
54% 90-78
49% 80-84
ATS
57% 96-71
65% 107-57
52% 87-81
51% 83-81
TTL
53% 83-73-11
57% 88-67-9
49% 76-80-11
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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