PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
88-74 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
94-68 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Sale
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 0-0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -- | -- |
| Chris Sale | 0-0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -- | -- |
0-0
W-L
0-0
0.00
ERA
0.00
0.00
WHIP
0.00
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
48%
BRAVES
52%
▲ Edge: +9% (PHI)
PHILLIES
39%
Book Odds: +158
BRAVES
66%
Book Odds: -192
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 6.5
73%
Under 6.5
27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
15.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
9.5%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2.50
Atlanta
5.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2.50
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.724
OPS
▲
.757
3
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+42.9% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Home Runs (L5)
+40.0% more
Atlanta: 1.2
vs
Philadelphia: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+32.4% more
Atlanta: 8.3
vs
Philadelphia: 6.3
On-Base Pct (Season)
+3.8%
Atlanta: 32.4%
vs
Philadelphia: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.8
3
ATL Score
5.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 7.9
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 6.3
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 13.1
13.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.7 / 4.2
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -192
→
+158 / -192
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
6.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHI
ATL
PHI
ML
46%
77-90
59%
97-67
54%
90-78
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
96-71
65%
107-57
52%
87-81
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
57%
88-67-9
49%
76-80-11
51%
78-76-9
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