CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
89-73 | Road
1
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
91-71 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Gausman
#12 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Pivetta
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | 0-0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -- | -- |
| Nick Pivetta | 0-0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -- | -- |
0-0
W-L
0-0
0.00
ERA
0.00
0.00
WHIP
0.00
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
46%
PADRES
54%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (CHC)
CUBS
45%
Book Odds: +123
PADRES
60%
Book Odds: -149
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 7.0
66%
Under 7.0
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
CHC By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
7.8%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.80
San Diego
5.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Chicago
7
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.80
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Cubs (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
A
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
CHC @ SD
1 - 4
Sep 29, 2026
CHC @ SD
0 - 8
Jul 1, 2026
SD @ CHC
3 - 23
Jun 30, 2026
SD @ CHC
7 - 9
Jun 29, 2026
SD @ CHC
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
San Diego
SD
2
Games Played
2
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.374
OPS
▲
.925
0
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+550.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+55.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+41.8%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Walks (L5)
+30.6% more
San Diego: 3.9
vs
Chicago: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
3.2
1
SD Score
5.2
4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +101 / -122
→
+123 / -149
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CHC
SD
CHC
ML
51%
85-83
58%
93-68
51%
85-82
51%
82-79
ATS
54%
91-77
61%
97-63-1
55%
92-75
47%
75-85-1
TTL
51%
82-80-6
52%
81-74-6
54%
86-74-6
46%
72-83-6
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