Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Necaxa vs América Necaxa vs América

NECAXANECAXA

2-3-6  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Victoria

AMÉRICAAMÉRICA

6-3-1  |  Away

4
AI Model Win Probability
NECAXA
18%
DRAW
21%
AMÉRICA
61%
▲ Edge: +24.80% (Necaxa)
24% Book Odds: +314
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +280
53% Book Odds: -113
Book Implied: 24.20% / 26.30% / 53.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 65%
Under 2.75 35%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
AMÉRICA
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (América)
NecaxaNecaxa (+0.5) 0 AméricaAmérica (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

53.3% / 46.7%

Shots (On Goal)

15(6) / 20(9)

Corners

3 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around América -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (América)

Necaxa By 1 goal

11.1%

Necaxa By 2+ goals

4.8%

América By 1 goal

26.1%

América By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.10
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.60
Simulated Score
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.10
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI América Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim América Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI América (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim América (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 Necaxa vs América 2 - 4
Jan 31, 2026 América vs Necaxa 2 - 0
Jan 18, 2026 Necaxa vs América 0 - 0
Aug 30, 2025 América vs Necaxa 2 - 0
Jul 26, 2025 Necaxa vs América 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +133.3% more
América: 7.0 vs Necaxa: 3.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
América: 2.0 vs Necaxa: 1.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
América: 2.0 vs Necaxa: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +12.5% more
Necaxa: 8.0 vs América: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
América Score 2.0 4
Necaxa Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Necaxa (Home) vs América (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Necaxa Share: 33.3% América Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Necaxa
América
Necaxa
América
ML
36% 4-7
60% 6-4
45% 5-6
70% 7-3
ATS
55% 6-5
44% 4-5-1
55% 6-5
88% 7-1-2
TTL
64% 7-4
60% 6-4
91% 10-1
80% 8-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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