Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / León vs Juárez León vs Juárez

LEÓNLEÓN

5-2-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio León

JUÁREZJUÁREZ

1-0-9  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
LEÓN
61%
DRAW
21%
JUÁREZ
18%
▲ Edge: +26.30% (FC Juárez)
65% Book Odds: -188
DRAW 23% Book Odds: +340
16% Book Odds: +532
Book Implied: 65.30% / 22.70% / 15.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 58%
Under 2.75 42%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
JUÁREZ
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
LeónLeón (-1) 0 JuárezJuárez (+1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

55.7% / 44.3%

Shots (On Goal)

7(3) / 9(1)

Corners

1 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around FC Juárez +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FC Juárez)

León By 1 goal

26.1%

León By 2+ goals

36.9%

FC Juárez By 1 goal

11.1%

FC Juárez By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.90
1
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
2
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.90
1
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI León Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim León Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI FC Juárez (+1) Push
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim FC Juárez (+1) Push
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 León vs Juárez 2 - 1
Apr 18, 2026 León vs Juárez 3 - 1
Mar 13, 2026 Juárez vs León 2 - 2
Oct 21, 2025 León vs Juárez 4 - 2
Sep 26, 2025 Juárez vs León 2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
León: 1.0 vs Juárez: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
León: 4.0 vs Juárez: 8.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
León: 2.0 vs Juárez: 1.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
León: 1.0 vs Juárez: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FC Juárez Score 1.0 1
León Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
León (Home) vs FC Juárez (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
León Share: 66.7% FC Juárez Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
León
FC Juárez
León
FC Juárez
ML
50% 5-5
60% 6-4
30% 3-7
70% 7-3
ATS
57% 4-3-3
38% 3-5-2
29% 2-5-3
78% 7-2-1
TTL
37% 3-6
56% 5-4-1
47% 4-5
78% 7-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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