Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / UNAM vs Atl. San Luis UNAM vs Atl. San Luis

UNAMUNAM

3-3-4  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 2:00 PM ET
Estadio Olímpico Universitario

ATL. SAN LUISATL. SAN LUIS

3-3-4  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
UNAM
61%
DRAW
21%
ATL. SAN LUIS
18%
▲ Edge: +32.30% (Atlético de San Luis)
48% Book Odds: +107
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +267
28% Book Odds: +259
Book Implied: 48.30% / 27.20% / 27.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 56%
Under 2.75 44%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
UNAM
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (UNAM)
UNAMUNAM (-0.5) 0 Atl. San LuisAtl. San Luis (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

54.3% / 45.7%

Shots (On Goal)

15(6) / 11(7)

Corners

11 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Pumas UNAM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Pumas UNAM)

Pumas UNAM By 1 goal

26.1%

Pumas UNAM By 2+ goals

36.9%

Atlético de San Luis By 1 goal

11.1%

Atlético de San Luis By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.60
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.60
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pumas UNAM Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Pumas UNAM Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pumas UNAM (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Pumas UNAM (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 UNAM vs Atl. San Luis 2 - 3
Apr 17, 2026 Atl. San Luis vs UNAM 0 - 2
Oct 22, 2025 UNAM vs Atl. San Luis 0 - 1
Feb 2, 2025 Atl. San Luis vs UNAM 2 - 3
Oct 20, 2024 UNAM vs Atl. San Luis 3 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
UNAM: 2.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 1.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Atl. San Luis: 2.0 vs UNAM: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +40.0% more
Atl. San Luis: 7.0 vs UNAM: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlético de San Luis Score 1.0 3
Pumas UNAM Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Pumas UNAM (Home) vs Atlético de San Luis (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Pumas UNAM Share: 66.7% Atlético de San Luis Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Pumas UNAM
Atlético de San Luis
Pumas UNAM
Atlético de San Luis
ML
50% 5-5
30% 3-7
22% 2-7
50% 5-5
ATS
47% 4-5
56% 5-4-1
12% 1-7
62% 5-3-2
TTL
68% 6-3
32% 3-6
65% 5-3
68% 6-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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