Home / NHL Projections NHL / Blues @ Avalanche STL @ COL

ST. LOUIS

BLUESSTL

1-1-0  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

AVALANCHECOL

2-0-0  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Jordan Binnington
GOALTENDER

Jordan Binnington

#50 | Goaltender
@
Mackenzie Blackwood
GOALTENDER

Mackenzie Blackwood

#39 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jordan Binnington None-None 6.00 0.833 --
Mackenzie Blackwood None-None 1.00 0.962 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
6.00 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.833 Save % Ldr 0.962
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUES
23%
📊
AVALANCHE
77%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (COL)
BLUES 29% Book Odds: +240
AVALANCHE 75% Book Odds: -298
Book Implied: 29.40% / 74.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 6.5 20%
Under 6.5 80%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
BluesSTL (+1.5) 0 AvalancheCOL (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blues Cover

77.3%

Avalanche Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around STL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1 goal

9.2%

STL By 2-3 goals

6.1%

COL By 1 goal

19.1%

COL By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
1.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 2.50
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 2.50
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Avalanche Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim Avalanche Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blues (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Blues (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.5
A
Sim o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 STL @ COL 1 - 6
Apr 7, 2026 COL @ STL 3 - 1
Dec 31, 2025 STL @ COL 1 - 6
Apr 5, 2025 COL @ STL 4 - 5
Mar 29, 2025 STL @ COL 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +80.0%
Colorado: 80.0% vs St. Louis: 0.0%
Hits (L5) +36.1% more
Colorado: 24.0 vs St. Louis: 17.6
Blocked Shots (L5) +25.4% more
Colorado: 15.0 vs St. Louis: 12.0
Shots on Goal (L5) +20.6% more
Colorado: 29.0 vs St. Louis: 24.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 1.5 1
COL Score 3.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.0 / 12.0 15.0 / 14.0
Faceoff % 36.2 / 37.9 56.1 / 43.9
Hits 24.0 / 17.6 16.0 / 28.0
Power Play % 8000.0 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 29.0 / 24.1 36.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 3.4 / 3.7 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +225 / -278 → +240 / -298 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
23%TICKETS77%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
94%TICKETS6%
97%MONEY3%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
STL
COL
STL
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
50% 1-1-1
67% 2-1
50% 1-1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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