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DALLAS

STARSDAL

0-2-0  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Bridgestone Arena
View Odds Details →

NASHVILLE

PREDATORSNSH

1-1-0  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Casey DeSmith
GOALTENDER

Casey DeSmith

#1 | Goaltender
@
Juuse Saros
GOALTENDER

Juuse Saros

#74 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Casey DeSmith None-None 2.05 0.923 --
Juuse Saros None-None 1.00 0.967 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.05 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.923 Save % Ldr 0.967
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
71%
📊
PREDATORS
29%
▲ Edge: +13.70% (DAL)
STARS 58% Book Odds: -136
PREDATORS 45% Book Odds: +123
Book Implied: 57.60% / 44.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.0 42%
Under 6.0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
NASHVILLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
StarsDAL (-1.5) 0 PredatorsNSH (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

22.7%

Predators Cover

77.3%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around NSH +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NSH)

DAL By 1 goal

19.1%

DAL By 2-3 goals

34.1%

NSH By 1 goal

9.2%

NSH By 2-3 goals

6.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
DALLAS
Book Implied: 3.80
2
NASHVILLE
Book Implied: 2.20
Simulated Score
2
DALLAS
Book Implied: 3.80
4
NASHVILLE
Book Implied: 2.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Stars Loss
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Predators Win
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Predators (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Predators (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.5
C
Sim o6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 DAL @ NSH 1 - 2
Feb 28, 2026 NSH @ DAL 2 - 3
Nov 8, 2025 DAL @ NSH 5 - 4
Oct 26, 2025 DAL @ NSH 3 - 2
Apr 16, 2025 DAL @ NSH 1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +31.6% more
Dallas: 19.0 vs Nashville: 13.0
Hits (L5) +24.6% more
Dallas: 25.1 vs Nashville: 19.0
Shots on Goal (L5) +19.9% more
Dallas: 25.0 vs Nashville: 20.0
Faceoff % (L5) +9.6%
Dallas: 62.1% vs Nashville: 52.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 3.5 1
NSH Score 2.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 13.0 / 19.0 15.0 / 13.0
Faceoff % 52.5 / 62.1 53.7 / 46.3
Hits 19.0 / 25.1 21.0 / 29.0
Power Play % 0.0 / 0.0 66.7 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 20.0 / 25.0 26.0 / 30.0
Takeaways 4.2 / 3.3 7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +120 → -136 / +123 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
30%TICKETS70%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 6 ↑
73%TICKETS27%
75%MONEY25%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NSH
DAL
NSH
DAL
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
ATS
0% 0-3
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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