OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
1-0-0 | Road
3
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
1-2-0 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Sergei Bobrovsky
#72 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 2.00 | 0.931 | -- |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | None-None | 3.06 | 0.897 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00 Ldr
GAA
3.06
0.931 Ldr
Save %
0.897
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
36%
MAPLE LEAFS
64%
▲ Edge: +10.30% (TOR)
SENATORS
51%
Book Odds: -105
MAPLE LEAFS
54%
Book Odds: -115
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 6.5
34%
Under 6.5
66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
OTTAWA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
OTT By 1 goal
9.2%
OTT By 2-3 goals
6.1%
TOR By 1 goal
19.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 2.50
Toronto
3.5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 2.50
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Senators
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Senators (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Senators (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.5
A
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
OTT @ TOR
3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
TOR @ OTT
1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026
TOR @ OTT
2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026
OTT @ TOR
5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025
OTT @ TOR
5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+33.8% more
Toronto: 16.4
vs
Ottawa: 12.3
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.5% more
Toronto: 27.3
vs
Ottawa: 24.3
Power Play % (L5)
+55.2%
Ottawa: 63.5%
vs
Toronto: 8.3%
Hits (L5)
+41.0% more
Ottawa: 38.5
vs
Toronto: 22.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
2.0
3
TOR Score
3.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.4 / 12.3
10.0 / 20.0
Faceoff %
46.5 / 58.7
43.1 / 56.9
Hits
22.7 / 38.5
18.0 / 29.0
Power Play %
8.3 / 63.5
25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.3 / 24.3
29.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
3.3 / 4.6
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -130
→
-105 / -115
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
OTT
TOR
OTT
ML
50%
2-2
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
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