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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

1-1-0  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

1-1-0  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Charlie Lindgren
GOALTENDER

Charlie Lindgren

#79 | Goaltender
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Charlie Lindgren None-None 2.08 0.931 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 1.00 0.952 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.08 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.931 Save % Ldr 0.952
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
43%
📊
LIGHTNING
57%
▲ Edge: +6% (WSH)
CAPITALS 37% Book Odds: +170
LIGHTNING 67% Book Odds: -205
Book Implied: 37% / 67.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.5 42%
Under 6.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Tampa Bay)
CapitalsWSH (+1.5) 0 LightningTB (-1.5)
Tampa Bay Lightning (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

21.2%

Lightning Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

WSH By 1 goal

8.6%

WSH By 2-3 goals

5.5%

TB By 1 goal

18.9%

TB By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 2.50
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 2.50
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Lightning Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lightning (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Capitals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 WSH @ TB 1 - 3
Nov 22, 2025 TB @ WSH 5 - 3
Nov 8, 2025 WSH @ TB 2 - 3
Oct 14, 2025 TB @ WSH 2 - 3
Mar 1, 2025 TB @ WSH 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +74.2% more
Tampa Bay: 30.6 vs Washington: 17.6
Takeaways (L5) +33.6% more
Tampa Bay: 5.0 vs Washington: 3.7
Power Play % (L5) +50.0%
Washington: 50.0% vs Tampa Bay: 0.0%
Blocked Shots (L5) +42.9% more
Washington: 28.0 vs Tampa Bay: 16.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 2.2 1
TB Score 3.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.0 / 28.0 19.0 / 14.0
Faceoff % 38.6 / 53.2 62.5 / 37.5
Hits 30.6 / 17.6 30.0 / 24.0
Power Play % 0.0 / 4999.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 25.0 / 27.0 30.0 / 21.0
Takeaways 5.0 / 3.7 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -148 / +124 → +170 / -205 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
73%TICKETS27%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 6.5 ↑
92%TICKETS8%
94%MONEY6%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
WSH
TB
WSH
ML
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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