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MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

1-0-1  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 7:00 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

2-0-0  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Jakub Dobes
GOALTENDER

Jakub Dobes

#75 | Goaltender
@
Arturs Silovs
GOALTENDER

Arturs Silovs

#37 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jakub Dobes None-None 6.09 0.800 --
Arturs Silovs None-None 4.87 0.800 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
6.09 GAA Ldr 4.87
0.800 Save % 0.800
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
40%
📊
PENGUINS
60%
▲ Edge: +9% (PIT)
CANADIENS 54% Book Odds: -115
PENGUINS 51% Book Odds: -105
Book Implied: 53.50% / 51.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.5 42%
Under 6.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Pittsburgh)
CanadiensMTL (-1.5) 0 PenguinsPIT (+1.5)
Pittsburgh Penguins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Canadiens Cover

21.2%

Penguins Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

MTL By 1 goal

8.6%

MTL By 2-3 goals

5.5%

PIT By 1 goal

18.9%

PIT By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 4
3.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
4
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 4
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Penguins Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Canadiens Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Penguins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
A
Sim Penguins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Sim o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 MTL @ PIT 5 - 6
Dec 21, 2025 MTL @ PIT 3 - 4
Dec 20, 2025 PIT @ MTL 0 - 4
Dec 11, 2025 MTL @ PIT 4 - 2
Dec 12, 2024 PIT @ MTL 9 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +58.3% more
Pittsburgh: 38.0 vs Montreal: 24.0
Power Play % (L5) +50.0%
Pittsburgh: 50.0% vs Montreal: 0.0%
Hits (L5) +17.5% more
Pittsburgh: 27.7 vs Montreal: 23.5
Faceoff % (L5) +22.5%
Montreal: 60.4% vs Pittsburgh: 37.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTL Score 2.2 5
PIT Score 3.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 11.0 / 11.0 20.0 / 12.0
Faceoff % 37.9 / 60.4 44.1 / 55.9
Hits 27.7 / 23.5 9.0 / 28.0
Power Play % 50.0 / 0.0 50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 38.0 / 24.0 30.0 / 25.0
Takeaways 4.1 / 4.6 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110 → -115 / -105 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
21%TICKETS79%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
89%TICKETS11%
93%MONEY7%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MTL
PIT
MTL
ML
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
ATS
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
TTL
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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