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ST. LOUIS

BLUESSTL

1-0-0  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Oct 2 • 9:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

0-1-0  |  Home

0
Goaltending
Joel Hofer
GOALTENDER

Joel Hofer

#30 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Joel Hofer None-None 0.00 1.000 1
Jake Oettinger None-None 2.06 0.909 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
0.00 Ldr GAA 2.06
1.000 Ldr Save % 0.909
1 Ldr SO --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUES
26%
📊
STARS
74%
▲ Edge: +9.20% (DAL)
BLUES 39% Book Odds: +154
STARS 65% Book Odds: -185
Book Implied: 39.40% / 64.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 5.5 27%
Under 5.5 73%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
DALLAS
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Dallas)
BluesSTL (+1.5) 0 StarsDAL (-1.5)
Dallas Stars (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blues Cover

21.2%

Stars Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

STL By 1 goal

8.6%

STL By 2-3 goals

5.5%

DAL By 1 goal

18.9%

DAL By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 2
2.8
DALLAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
2
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 2
4
DALLAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Stars Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Stars Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stars (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Stars (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
A
Sim o5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2026 STL @ DAL 4 - 0
Feb 4, 2026 STL @ DAL 4 - 5
Jan 27, 2026 DAL @ STL 4 - 3
Jan 23, 2026 STL @ DAL 2 - 3
Oct 18, 2025 DAL @ STL 1 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +155.9% more
Dallas: 16.1 vs St. Louis: 6.3
Hits (L5) +55.8% more
Dallas: 27.2 vs St. Louis: 17.5
Faceoff % (L5) +14.6%
Dallas: 49.3% vs St. Louis: 34.7%
Takeaways (L5) +11.8% more
St. Louis: 4.5 vs Dallas: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 1.2 4
DAL Score 2.8 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.1 / 6.3 19.0 / 12.0
Faceoff % 49.3 / 34.7 62.1 / 37.9
Hits 27.2 / 17.5 21.0 / 18.0
Power Play % 158.0 / 142.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 29.9 / 30.8 25.0 / 24.0
Takeaways 4.0 / 4.5 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -205 / +170 → +154 / -185 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
36%TICKETS64%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
77%TICKETS23%
80%MONEY20%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
STL
DAL
STL
ML
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
ATS
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
TTL
57% 4-3
33% 2-4-1
71% 5-2
67% 4-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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