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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

1-0-0  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Oct 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Lenovo Center
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

HURRICANESCAR

0-1-1  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
@
Brandon Bussi
GOALTENDER

Brandon Bussi

#32 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Logan Thompson None-None 2.00 0.939 --
Brandon Bussi None-None 5.00 0.815 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 5.00
0.939 Ldr Save % 0.815
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
51%
📊
HURRICANES
49%
▲ Edge: +6.80% (WSH)
CAPITALS 45% Book Odds: +124
HURRICANES 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5 50%
Under 6.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
CapitalsWSH (+1.5) 0 HurricanesCAR (-1.5)
Washington Capitals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

77.3%

Hurricanes Cover

22.7%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1 goal

19.1%

WSH By 2-3 goals

34.1%

CAR By 1 goal

9.2%

CAR By 2-3 goals

6.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 2.50
2.5
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 2.50
3
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Capitals Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Hurricanes Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Capitals (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.5
A
Sim Capitals (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2026 WSH @ CAR 5 - 2
Jan 31, 2026 CAR @ WSH 3 - 4
Dec 11, 2025 CAR @ WSH 3 - 2
Nov 11, 2025 WSH @ CAR 4 - 1
May 15, 2025 CAR @ WSH 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +48.2% more
Washington: 29.0 vs Carolina: 15.0
Power Play % (L5) +13.9%
Washington: 13.9% vs Carolina: 0.0%
Hits (L5) +116.7% more
Carolina: 36.5 vs Washington: 16.8
Takeaways (L5) +51.1% more
Carolina: 6.2 vs Washington: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.0 5
CAR Score 2.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 19.0 / 16.7 9.0 / 28.0
Faceoff % 58.6 / 50.1 46.8 / 53.2
Hits 36.5 / 16.8 32.0 / 19.0
Power Play % 0.0 / 13.9 16.7 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 15.0 / 29.0 33.0 / 27.0
Takeaways 6.2 / 4.1 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +124 / -148 ↑
14%TICKETS86%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
38%TICKETS62%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
83%TICKETS17%
81%MONEY19%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
WSH
CAR
WSH
ML
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
TTL
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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