Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Rams BUF @ LAR

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

4-1  |  Road

37
FINAL
Mon, Oct 12 • 8:15 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

2-3  |  Home

34
Key Game
Tommy Doman Jr.
KEY GAME

Tommy Doman Jr.

#39 | Punter
@
Harrison Mevis
KEY GAME

Harrison Mevis

#92 | Place kicker
Player
Tommy Doman Jr. None-None
Harrison Mevis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
41%
📊
RAMS
59%
▲ Edge: +1.20% (BUF)
BILLS 39% Book Odds: +154
RAMS 65% Book Odds: -185
Book Implied: 39.40% / 64.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.5
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 55.5 39%
Under 55.5 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.5
BUFFALO
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
BillsBUF (+3.5) 0 RamsLAR (-3.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+3.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

59.9%

Rams Cover

40.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF +3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-6 points

15.0%

BUF By 7-13 points

12.5%

LAR By 1-6 points

17.0%

LAR By 7-13 points

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 26
27.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 29.50
Simulated Score
25
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 26
29
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 29.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Rams Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.5
D
Sim Rams (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.5
B
Sim u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 12, 2026 BUF @ LAR 37 - 34
Dec 8, 2024 BUF @ LAR 42 - 44
Sep 8, 2022 BUF @ LAR 31 - 10
Sep 27, 2020 LAR @ BUF 32 - 35
Oct 9, 2016 BUF @ LAR 30 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +33.1% more
Los Angeles: 302.9 vs Buffalo: 227.7
Total Yards (L5) +17.9% more
Los Angeles: 429.6 vs Buffalo: 364.2
First Downs (L5) +8.6% more
Los Angeles: 24.2 vs Buffalo: 22.3
Turnovers (L5) +16.0% more
Buffalo: 2.0 vs Los Angeles: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 24.0 37
LAR Score 27.5 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.2 / 22.3 33.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 302.9 / 227.7 377.0 / 202.0
Rushing Yards 126.7 / 136.6 77.0 / 234.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 429.6 / 364.2 454.0 / 436.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 2.0 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 6.0 / 6.1 5.8 / 7.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -162 → +154 / -185 ↑
49%TICKETS51%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↑
74%TICKETS26%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 55.5 ↑
85%TICKETS15%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
LAR
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
LAR
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +9.8
LAR
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAR
BUF
LAR
BUF
ML
43% 3-4
50% 3-3
29% 2-5
50% 3-3
ATS
57% 4-3
17% 1-5
29% 2-5
17% 1-5
TTL
43% 3-4
33% 2-4
43% 3-4
17% 1-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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