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BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

4-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 8:20 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

2-3  |  Home

23
Key Game
Ryan Eckley
KEY GAME

Ryan Eckley

#30 | Punter
@
Jake Bailey
KEY GAME

Jake Bailey

#16 | Punter
Player
Ryan Eckley None-None
Jake Bailey None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
65%
📊
FALCONS
35%
▲ Edge: +24.30% (BAL)
RAVENS 41% Book Odds: +145
FALCONS 64% Book Odds: -175
Book Implied: 40.80% / 63.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.5
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 44.5 47%
Under 44.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Baltimore)
RavensBAL (+3.5) 0 FalconsATL (-3.5)
Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ravens Cover

70.4%

Falcons Cover

29.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BAL -7.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-6 points

16.3%

BAL By 7-13 points

19.4%

ATL By 1-6 points

12.5%

ATL By 7-13 points

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
25
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 20.50
17.5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
26
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 20.50
22
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ravens Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Ravens Win
66% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ravens (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.5
A
Sim Ravens (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 42.5
D
Sim o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 BAL @ ATL 30 - 23
Dec 24, 2022 ATL @ BAL 9 - 17
Dec 2, 2018 BAL @ ATL 26 - 16
Oct 19, 2014 ATL @ BAL 7 - 29
Nov 11, 2010 BAL @ ATL 21 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +10.4% more
Baltimore: 231.7 vs Atlanta: 207.6
Turnovers (L5) +102.0% more
Atlanta: 1.5 vs Baltimore: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.3% more
Atlanta: 176.0 vs Baltimore: 151.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Atlanta: 0.4 vs Baltimore: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 25.0 30
ATL Score 17.5 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 20.6 17.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 207.6 / 231.7 257.0 / 183.0
Rushing Yards 176.0 / 151.3 110.0 / 208.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.53 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 383.6 / 383.0 367.0 / 391.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.3 / 6.4 5.7 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -198 / +164 → +145 / -175 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -4.5 / +4.5 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↑
53%TICKETS47%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 44.5 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -3.1
ATL
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -3.1
ATL Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
ATL
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
BAL
ATL
BAL
ML
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
ATS
43% 3-4
33% 2-4-1
29% 2-5
83% 5-1-1
TTL
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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