Home / NFL Projections NFL / 49ers @ Seahawks SF @ SEA

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

5-0  |  Road

32
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 4:25 PM ET
Lumen Field
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

SEAHAWKSSEA

3-2  |  Home

29
Key Game
Corliss Waitman
KEY GAME

Corliss Waitman

#15 | Punter
@
Michael Dickson
KEY GAME

Michael Dickson

#4 | Punter
Player
Corliss Waitman None-None
Michael Dickson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
37%
📊
SEAHAWKS
63%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (SEA)
49ERS 42% Book Odds: +140
SEAHAWKS 62% Book Odds: -166
Book Implied: 41.70% / 62.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +7.5 (Under)
Over 46.5 28%
Under 46.5 72%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Seattle)
49ersSF (+3) 0 SeahawksSEA (-3)
Seattle Seahawks (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

38.8%

Seahawks Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SEA -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SF By 1-6 points

14.7%

SF By 7-13 points

12.1%

SEA By 1-6 points

17.0%

SEA By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
17.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 21.80
21.5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 24.80
Simulated Score
22
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 21.80
26
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 24.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Seahawks Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Seahawks Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seahawks (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Seahawks (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 39.0
A
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 SF @ SEA 32 - 29
Jan 17, 2026 SF @ SEA 6 - 41
Jan 3, 2026 SEA @ SF 13 - 3
Sep 7, 2025 SF @ SEA 17 - 13
Nov 17, 2024 SEA @ SF 20 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +98.0% more
Seattle: 1.4 vs San Francisco: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +23.0% more
San Francisco: 0.5 vs Seattle: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.5% more
San Francisco: 134.1 vs Seattle: 109.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +12.6% more
San Francisco: 6.5 vs Seattle: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 17.5 32
SEA Score 21.5 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 21.6 14.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 232.4 / 240.7 162.0 / 175.0
Rushing Yards 109.3 / 134.1 89.0 / 94.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 341.7 / 374.8 251.0 / 269.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.5 4.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 6.5 4.2 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +164 / -198 → +140 / -166 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +3 / -3 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 46.5 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +4.4
SEA
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +4.4
SEA
2-3-2 (40.0%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.1
SEA
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
SF
SEA
SF
ML
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
14% 1-6
ATS
60% 3-2-2
14% 1-6
40% 2-3-2
29% 2-5
TTL
14% 1-6
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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