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CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

3-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 1:00 PM ET
Lambeau Field
View Odds Details →

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

3-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
@
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
Player
Tory Taylor None-None
Daniel Whelan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
42%
📊
PACKERS
58%
▲ Edge: +9.40% (GB)
BEARS 56% Book Odds: -125
PACKERS 49% Book Odds: +105
Book Implied: 55.60% / 48.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.5
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 46.5 58%
Under 46.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Green Bay)
BearsCHI (-1.5) 0 PackersGB (+1.5)
Green Bay Packers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

48.6%

Packers Cover

51.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GB -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)

CHI By 1-6 points

16.3%

CHI By 7-13 points

15.0%

GB By 1-6 points

16.6%

GB By 7-13 points

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 24
25
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
23
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 24
26
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Packers Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Packers Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Packers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -0.5
C
Sim Packers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.5
B
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 CHI @ GB 7 - 31
Jan 10, 2026 GB @ CHI 27 - 31
Dec 20, 2025 GB @ CHI 16 - 22
Dec 7, 2025 CHI @ GB 21 - 28
Jan 5, 2025 CHI @ GB 24 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.0% more
Green Bay: 1.4 vs Chicago: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +60.1% more
Chicago: 182.2 vs Green Bay: 72.7
First Downs (L5) +33.1% more
Chicago: 25.8 vs Green Bay: 17.3
Total Yards (L5) +28.0% more
Chicago: 421.4 vs Green Bay: 303.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 24.5 7
GB Score 25.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.3 / 25.8 18.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 230.7 / 239.2 358.0 / 165.0
Rushing Yards 72.7 / 182.2 70.0 / 81.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 303.5 / 421.4 428.0 / 246.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 5.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 5.6 7.3 / 3.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +140 / -166 → -125 / +105 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
52%TICKETS48%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 46.5 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +3.4
GB
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +3.4
GB
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.6
GB
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GB
CHI
GB
CHI
ML
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
ATS
50% 3-3-1
71% 5-2
50% 3-3-1
86% 6-1
TTL
43% 3-4
0% 0-7
57% 4-3
14% 1-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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