Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Chargers DEN @ LAC

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

3-2  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 4:05 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

0-5  |  Home

17
Key Game
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
@
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
Player
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
JK Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
47%
📊
CHARGERS
53%
▲ Edge: +14.90% (LAC)
BRONCOS 66% Book Odds: -192
CHARGERS 39% Book Odds: +160
Book Implied: 65.80% / 38.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.4
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.1 (Under)
Over 42.5 41%
Under 42.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Los Angeles)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 ChargersLAC (+3.5)
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

41.5%

Chargers Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

DEN By 1-6 points

15.3%

DEN By 7-13 points

12.9%

LAC By 1-6 points

17.0%

LAC By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
18.2
DENVER
Book Implied: 23
21.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 19.50
Simulated Score
24
DENVER
Book Implied: 23
21
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 19.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chargers Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chargers (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Sim Chargers (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u42.5 Win
Proj Total: 39.4
B
Sim o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 DEN @ LAC 23 - 17
Jan 4, 2026 LAC @ DEN 3 - 19
Sep 21, 2025 DEN @ LAC 20 - 23
Dec 19, 2024 DEN @ LAC 27 - 34
Oct 13, 2024 LAC @ DEN 23 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +135.5% more
Los Angeles: 2.5 vs Denver: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.1% more
Los Angeles: 135.1 vs Denver: 86.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +18.2% more
Denver: 219.5 vs Los Angeles: 179.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Denver: 0.4 vs Los Angeles: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 18.2 23
LAC Score 21.2 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.8 / 18.0 14.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 179.7 / 219.5 82.0 / 118.0
Rushing Yards 135.1 / 86.5 155.0 / 106.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.08
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 314.8 / 306.1 237.0 / 224.0
Turnovers 2.5 / 1.1 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 5.0 3.8 / 3.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → -192 / +160 ↓
84%TICKETS16%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↓
53%TICKETS47%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 42.5 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
LAC
0-6-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -8.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
LAC
0-5-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -8.7
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -3.6
LAC
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
DEN
LAC
DEN
ML
50% 3-3
57% 4-3
50% 3-3
57% 4-3
ATS
20% 1-4-1
86% 6-1
0% 0-5-1
43% 3-4
TTL
67% 4-2
57% 4-3
50% 3-3
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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