Home / NFL Projections NFL / Giants @ Commanders NYG @ WSH

NEW YORK

GIANTSNYG

3-1-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 1:00 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

1-3-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Jordan Stout
KEY GAME

Jordan Stout

#15 | Punter
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Jordan Stout None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
48%
📊
COMMANDERS
52%
▲ Edge: +8.30% (NYG)
GIANTS 40% Book Odds: +150
COMMANDERS 64% Book Odds: -180
Book Implied: 40% / 64.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.4
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 (Over)
Over 41.5 62%
Under 41.5 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
GiantsNYG (+3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (-3.5)
New York Giants (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

58.5%

Commanders Cover

41.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NYG +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYG)

NYG By 1-6 points

15.3%

NYG By 7-13 points

12.9%

WSH By 1-6 points

17.0%

WSH By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
21.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 19
24.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
23
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 19
26
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Commanders Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Push
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Giants (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.4
B
Sim o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 NYG @ WSH 27 - 27
Dec 14, 2025 WSH @ NYG 29 - 21
Sep 7, 2025 NYG @ WSH 6 - 21
Nov 3, 2024 WSH @ NYG 27 - 22
Sep 15, 2024 NYG @ WSH 18 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +50.0% more
New York: 1.5 vs Washington: 0.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
New York: 0.4 vs Washington: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +10.5% more
New York: 18.0 vs Washington: 16.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYG Score 21.2 27
WSH Score 24.2 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.1 / 18.0 20.0 / 29.0
Net Passing Yards 186.9 / 186.5 176.0 / 305.0
Rushing Yards 112.2 / 112.4 202.0 / 103.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 299.0 / 298.9 378.0 / 408.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 4.8 6.3 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -130 → +150 / -180 ↑
39%TICKETS61%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↑
63%TICKETS37%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 41.5 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYG Advantage
4-2-1 (66.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +3.8
WSH
1-4-1 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.7 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYG Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +3.8
WSH
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.7 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NYG
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +2.5
WSH
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYG
WSH
NYG
ML
67% 4-2
43% 3-4
40% 2-3-1
67% 4-2-1
ATS
33% 2-4
86% 6-1
83% 5-1
86% 6-1
TTL
67% 4-2
57% 4-3
83% 5-1
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Nahshon Wright Admits Frustration with Jets Role, Open to Trade …
bleacherreport 10 hours, 1 minute ago
Malik Willis' Historic QBR Performance: Does It End Dolphins' QB…
si 15 hours, 59 minutes ago
Gronkowski Weighs In on Raiders QB Debate: Cousins or Mendoza?
yahoo 22 hours, 12 minutes ago
Week 8 Fantasy Football Flex Rankings: Navigating Bye Weeks and …
si 2 days, 4 hours ago
Raiders Stick with Kirk Cousins as Starting QB, Coach Klint Kubi…
players_bio 2 days, 9 hours ago