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INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

2-3  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 1:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

3-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
@
Cameron Johnston
KEY GAME

Cameron Johnston

#19 | Punter
Player
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
Cameron Johnston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
45%
📊
STEELERS
55%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (IND)
COLTS 42% Book Odds: +136
STEELERS 62% Book Odds: -162
Book Implied: 42.40% / 61.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.4
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 41.5 56%
Under 41.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Indianapolis)
ColtsIND (+3) 0 SteelersPIT (-3)
Indianapolis Colts (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

52.8%

Steelers Cover

47.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-6 points

16.1%

IND By 7-13 points

14.6%

PIT By 1-6 points

16.7%

PIT By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
21.2
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 19.20
22.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 22.20
Simulated Score
22
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 19.20
25
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 22.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Steelers Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colts (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
C
Sim Colts (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.4
C
Sim o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 IND @ PIT 22 - 34
Nov 2, 2025 IND @ PIT 20 - 27
Sep 29, 2024 PIT @ IND 24 - 27
Dec 16, 2023 PIT @ IND 13 - 30
Nov 28, 2022 PIT @ IND 24 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +32.2% more
Pittsburgh: 227.4 vs Indianapolis: 172.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +19.6% more
Pittsburgh: 5.3 vs Indianapolis: 4.4
Total Yards (L5) +17.3% more
Pittsburgh: 327.2 vs Indianapolis: 278.9
First Downs (L5) +9.6% more
Pittsburgh: 19.9 vs Indianapolis: 18.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 21.2 22
PIT Score 22.2 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 18.2 16.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 227.4 / 172.0 225.0 / 266.0
Rushing Yards 99.8 / 106.8 127.0 / 66.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 327.2 / 278.9 352.0 / 332.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.9 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 4.4 6.5 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +136 / -162 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
62%TICKETS38%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 41.5 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -3.7 ATS +/-: -2.4
PIT Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -3.7 ATS +/-: -2.4
PIT Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.4
PIT
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
IND
PIT
IND
ML
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
ATS
43% 3-4
14% 1-6
14% 1-6
43% 3-4
TTL
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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