INDIANAPOLIS
COLTSIND
2-3 | Road
22
PITTSBURGH
STEELERSPIT
3-2 | Home
34
Key Game
KEY GAME
Rigoberto Sanchez
#8 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Cameron Johnston
#19 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Rigoberto Sanchez | None-None |
| Cameron Johnston | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
45%
STEELERS
55%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (IND)
COLTS
42%
Book Odds: +136
STEELERS
62%
Book Odds: -162
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.4
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 41.5
56%
Under 41.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Indianapolis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-6 points
16.1%
IND By 7-13 points
14.6%
PIT By 1-6 points
16.7%
PIT By 7-13 points
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Indianapolis
21.2
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 19.20
Pittsburgh
22.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 22.20
Simulated Score
Indianapolis
22
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 19.20
Pittsburgh
25
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 22.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Steelers
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Steelers
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Colts (+3)
Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
C
Sim
Colts (+3)
Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o41.5
Win
Proj Total: 43.4
C
Sim
o41.5
Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 11, 2026
IND @ PIT
22 - 34
Nov 2, 2025
IND @ PIT
20 - 27
Sep 29, 2024
PIT @ IND
24 - 27
Dec 16, 2023
PIT @ IND
13 - 30
Nov 28, 2022
PIT @ IND
24 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+32.2% more
Pittsburgh: 227.4
vs
Indianapolis: 172.0
Yards Per Play (L5)
+19.6% more
Pittsburgh: 5.3
vs
Indianapolis: 4.4
Total Yards (L5)
+17.3% more
Pittsburgh: 327.2
vs
Indianapolis: 278.9
First Downs (L5)
+9.6% more
Pittsburgh: 19.9
vs
Indianapolis: 18.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
21.2
22
PIT Score
22.2
34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.9 / 18.2
16.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards
227.4 / 172.0
225.0 / 266.0
Rushing Yards
99.8 / 106.8
127.0 / 66.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.36 / 0.27
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards
327.2 / 278.9
352.0 / 332.0
Turnovers
1.4 / 1.9
0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play
5.3 / 4.4
6.5 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142
→
+136 / -162
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5
→
+3 / -3
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5
→
41.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-5-0
(28.6%)
Margin: -3.7
ATS +/-: -2.4
PIT
Advantage
5-2-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
4-3-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -3.7
ATS +/-: -2.4
PIT
Advantage
5-2-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +3.4
PIT
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
IND
PIT
IND
ML
71%
5-2
71%
5-2
43%
3-4
57%
4-3
ATS
43%
3-4
14%
1-6
14%
1-6
43%
3-4
TTL
43%
3-4
43%
3-4
57%
4-3
43%
3-4
Contextual Game News
Browns and Steelers Clash for AFC North Supremacy
Bears Seek to Revive Rushing Attack Against Seahawks' Stout Defe…
.jpg)
Nahshon Wright Admits Frustration with Jets Role, Open to Trade …
Houston Texans' Jaylin Noel Sidelined for Season with Turf Toe, …
Colts' Sauce Gardner Opens Up About Emotional Toll of Losing Cap…