Home / NFL Projections NFL / Browns @ Jets CLE @ NYJ

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

3-2  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

2-3  |  Home

17
Key Game
Andre Szmyt
KEY GAME

Andre Szmyt

#25 | Place kicker
@
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
Player
Andre Szmyt None-None
Austin McNamara None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
48%
📊
JETS
52%
▲ Edge: +2.80% (CLE)
BROWNS 46% Book Odds: +120
JETS 59% Book Odds: -142
Book Implied: 45.50% / 58.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
38.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 38.5 64%
Under 38.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
BrownsCLE (+2.5) 0 JetsNYJ (-2.5)
New York Jets (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

41.5%

Jets Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NYJ -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYJ)

CLE By 1-6 points

15.3%

CLE By 7-13 points

12.9%

NYJ By 1-6 points

17.0%

NYJ By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
20
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 18
23
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 20.50
Simulated Score
18
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 18
21
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 20.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jets Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jets (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Jets (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o38.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
B
Sim o38.5 Loss
Proj Total: 39.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 CLE @ NYJ 12 - 17
Nov 9, 2025 CLE @ NYJ 20 - 27
Dec 28, 2023 NYJ @ CLE 20 - 37
Sep 18, 2022 NYJ @ CLE 31 - 30
Dec 27, 2020 CLE @ NYJ 16 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +58.8% more
Cleveland: 1.4 vs New York: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.6% more
Cleveland: 103.1 vs New York: 76.7
Total Yards (L5) +19.2% more
Cleveland: 307.8 vs New York: 248.8
First Downs (L5) +16.5% more
Cleveland: 18.1 vs New York: 15.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 20.0 12
NYJ Score 23.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.1 / 18.1 14.0 / 13.0
Net Passing Yards 172.0 / 204.8 142.0 / 102.0
Rushing Yards 76.7 / 103.1 134.0 / 96.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 248.8 / 307.8 276.0 / 198.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.4 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 5.2 4.2 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -130 → +120 / -142 ↑
67%TICKETS33%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↑
82%TICKETS18%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: 39.5 → 38.5 ↓
74%TICKETS26%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
NYJ
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
NYJ
4-2-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +0.2
NYJ
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
CLE
NYJ
CLE
ML
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
ATS
50% 3-3-1
43% 3-4
50% 3-3-1
43% 3-4
TTL
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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