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MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

5-0  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 1:00 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

1-4  |  Home

13
Key Game
Brett Thorson
KEY GAME

Brett Thorson

#19 | Punter
@
Ryan Wright
KEY GAME

Ryan Wright

#17 | Punter
Player
Brett Thorson None-None
Ryan Wright None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
54%
📊
SAINTS
46%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (NO)
VIKINGS 59% Book Odds: -142
SAINTS 46% Book Odds: +120
Book Implied: 58.70% / 45.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 41.5 55%
Under 41.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Minnesota)
VikingsMIN (-2.5) 0 SaintsNO (+2.5)
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

57.4%

Saints Cover

42.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIN -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-6 points

16.9%

MIN By 7-13 points

17.2%

NO By 1-6 points

15.5%

NO By 7-13 points

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
22.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 22
20.2
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 19.50
Simulated Score
23
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 22
21
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 19.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vikings Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Win
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Vikings (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.6
D
Sim Saints (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Sim o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 MIN @ NO 23 - 13
Nov 12, 2023 NO @ MIN 19 - 27
Oct 2, 2022 MIN @ NO 28 - 25
Dec 25, 2020 MIN @ NO 33 - 52
Jan 5, 2020 MIN @ NO 26 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.3% more
Minnesota: 105.8 vs New Orleans: 91.7
Turnovers (L5) +104.0% more
New Orleans: 1.7 vs Minnesota: 0.6
First Downs (L5) +49.6% more
New Orleans: 23.3 vs Minnesota: 15.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +46.8% more
New Orleans: 251.4 vs Minnesota: 171.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 22.8 23
NO Score 20.2 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.3 / 15.5 9.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 251.4 / 171.2 87.0 / 211.0
Rushing Yards 91.7 / 105.8 55.0 / 153.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.2 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.34 / 0.66
Total Yards 343.1 / 277.0 142.0 / 364.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.6 3.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 4.6 3.3 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -125 / +105 → -142 / +120 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↓
49%TICKETS51%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 41.5 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
6-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +5.8
NO
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +5.8
NO
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -9.5
NO
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
MIN
NO
MIN
ML
43% 3-4
50% 3-3
29% 2-5
67% 4-2
ATS
29% 2-5
33% 2-4
29% 2-5
83% 5-1
TTL
0% 0-7
0% 0-6
14% 1-6
17% 1-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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