Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Patriots LV @ NE

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

3-2  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

3-2  |  Home

45
Key Game
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
@
Mitch Wishnowsky
KEY GAME

Mitch Wishnowsky

#19 | Punter
Player
AJ Cole None-None
Mitch Wishnowsky None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
24%
📊
PATRIOTS
77%
▲ Edge: +12.20% (NE)
RAIDERS 40% Book Odds: +150
PATRIOTS 64% Book Odds: -180
Book Implied: 40% / 64.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.0
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +10.5 (Under)
Over 45.5 22%
Under 45.5 78%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (New England)
RaidersLV (+3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (-3.5)
New England Patriots (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

23.8%

Patriots Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

LV By 1-6 points

10.7%

LV By 7-13 points

7.3%

NE By 1-6 points

15.3%

NE By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
12.5
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 21
22.5
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 24.50
Simulated Score
18
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 21
27
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 24.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Patriots Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim Patriots Win
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Patriots (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Sim Patriots (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 35.0
A
Sim u45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 LV @ NE 17 - 45
Sep 7, 2025 LV @ NE 20 - 13
Oct 15, 2023 NE @ LV 17 - 21
Dec 18, 2022 NE @ LV 24 - 30
Sep 27, 2020 LV @ NE 20 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +52.5% more
New England: 2.2 vs Las Vegas: 1.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +49.5% more
New England: 125.4 vs Las Vegas: 83.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.5% more
New England: 5.5 vs Las Vegas: 4.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +10.3% more
Las Vegas: 250.3 vs New England: 224.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 12.5 17
NE Score 22.5 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 21.7 29.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 224.5 / 250.3 371.0 / 268.0
Rushing Yards 125.4 / 83.9 165.0 / 38.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 349.9 / 334.2 536.0 / 306.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 4.9 8.1 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +310 / -395 → +150 / -180 ↓
34%TICKETS66%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↓
70%TICKETS30%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 45.5 ↑
78%TICKETS22%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
NE Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
NE
3-3-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.4
NE
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
LV
NE
LV
ML
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
ATS
33% 2-4-1
43% 3-4
33% 2-4-1
43% 3-4
TTL
14% 1-6
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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