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CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

3-2  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

0-5  |  Home

24
Key Game
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
@
Bradley Pinion
KEY GAME

Bradley Pinion

#48 | Punter
Player
Ryan Rehkow None-None
Bradley Pinion None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
66%
📊
DOLPHINS
34%
▲ Edge: +7.60% (MIA)
BENGALS 78% Book Odds: -355
DOLPHINS 26% Book Odds: +280
Book Implied: 78% / 26.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.6
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.9 (Under)
Over 44.5 44%
Under 44.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
+7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Miami)
BengalsCIN (-7) 0 DolphinsMIA (+7)
Miami Dolphins (+7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

47.2%

Dolphins Cover

52.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

CIN By 1-6 points

16.7%

CIN By 7-13 points

16.1%

MIA By 1-6 points

16.1%

MIA By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
21.8
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 25.80
20.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 18.80
Simulated Score
27
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 25.80
21
MIAMI
Book Implied: 18.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Bengals Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Bengals Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dolphins (+7) Push
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Sim Dolphins (+7) Push
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 42.6
C
Sim o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 CIN @ MIA 31 - 24
Dec 21, 2025 CIN @ MIA 45 - 21
Sep 29, 2022 MIA @ CIN 15 - 27
Dec 6, 2020 CIN @ MIA 7 - 19
Dec 22, 2019 CIN @ MIA 35 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +48.7% more
Cincinnati: 293.8 vs Miami: 150.7
First Downs (L5) +38.5% more
Cincinnati: 21.6 vs Miami: 13.3
Total Yards (L5) +28.7% more
Cincinnati: 369.7 vs Miami: 263.7
Turnovers (L5) +25.6% more
Cincinnati: 1.6 vs Miami: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 21.8 31
MIA Score 20.8 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.3 / 21.6 23.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 150.7 / 293.8 114.0 / 190.0
Rushing Yards 113.0 / 75.9 217.0 / 117.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.69
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 263.7 / 369.7 331.0 / 307.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.6 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 5.8 5.2 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -270 / +220 → -355 / +280 ↓
96%TICKETS4%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6 / +6 → -7 / +7 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 44.5 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +3.9
MIA
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +3.9
MIA
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.3
MIA
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CIN
MIA
CIN
ML
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
ATS
60% 3-2-1
20% 1-4-1
60% 3-2-1
80% 4-1-1
TTL
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
83% 5-1
83% 5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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