Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Titans HOU @ TEN

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

1-4  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 1:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

0-5  |  Home

3
Key Game
Kai Kroeger
KEY GAME

Kai Kroeger

#38 | Punter
@
Tommy Townsend
KEY GAME

Tommy Townsend

#3 | Punter
Player
Kai Kroeger None-None
Tommy Townsend None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
65%
📊
TITANS
35%
▲ Edge: +7.50% (TEN)
TEXANS 77% Book Odds: -325
TITANS 28% Book Odds: +260
Book Implied: 76.50% / 27.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
37.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 37.5 67%
Under 37.5 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Houston)
TexansHOU (-6.5) 0 TitansTEN (+6.5)
Houston Texans (-6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

74.9%

Titans Cover

25.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -9.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

15.5%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.7%

TEN By 1-6 points

11.2%

TEN By 7-13 points

7.7%

AI Model Projected Score
26.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 22
16.8
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 15.50
Simulated Score
23
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 22
20
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 15.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Texans Win
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Texans (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.4
B
Sim Titans (+6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o37.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
A
Sim o37.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 HOU @ TEN 26 - 3
Nov 16, 2025 HOU @ TEN 16 - 13
Sep 28, 2025 TEN @ HOU 0 - 26
Jan 5, 2025 HOU @ TEN 23 - 14
Nov 24, 2024 TEN @ HOU 32 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +28.9% more
Houston: 253.6 vs Tennessee: 180.4
Total Yards (L5) +17.7% more
Houston: 331.2 vs Tennessee: 272.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.9% more
Houston: 5.6 vs Tennessee: 5.0
First Downs (L5) +8.8% more
Houston: 18.4 vs Tennessee: 16.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 26.2 26
TEN Score 16.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 18.4 15.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 180.4 / 253.6 130.0 / 250.0
Rushing Yards 92.2 / 77.5 57.0 / 79.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 272.6 / 331.2 187.0 / 329.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 5.6 3.2 / 5.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -185 / +154 → -325 / +260 ↓
94%TICKETS6%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → -6.5 / +6.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 37.5 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
TEN
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
TEN Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +4.6
TEN
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
HOU
TEN
HOU
ML
57% 4-3
14% 1-6
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
ATS
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
TTL
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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