PHILADELPHIA
EAGLESPHI
2-3 | Road
17
JACKSONVILLE
JAGUARSJAX
4-1 | Home
19
Key Game
KEY GAME
Braden Mann
#10 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Logan Cooke
#9 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Braden Mann | None-None |
| Logan Cooke | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
50%
JAGUARS
50%
▲ Edge: +25.10% (PHI)
EAGLES
25%
Book Odds: +300
JAGUARS
79%
Book Odds: -380
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.5
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 41.5
53%
Under 41.5
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
+7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PHI -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-6 points
16.9%
PHI By 7-13 points
18.3%
JAX By 1-6 points
14.4%
JAX By 7-13 points
11.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
23.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 17
Jacksonville
19
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 24.50
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
24
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 17
Jacksonville
22
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 24.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Eagles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Eagles
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Eagles (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.5
A
Sim
Eagles (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o41.5
Loss
Proj Total: 42.5
D
Sim
o41.5
Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 11, 2026
PHI @ JAX
17 - 19
Nov 3, 2024
JAX @ PHI
23 - 28
Oct 2, 2022
JAX @ PHI
21 - 29
Oct 28, 2018
PHI @ JAX
24 - 18
Sep 7, 2014
JAX @ PHI
17 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+57.4% more
Philadelphia: 1.2
vs
Jacksonville: 0.5
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+39.8% more
Jacksonville: 203.0
vs
Philadelphia: 145.3
First Downs (L5)
+33.9% more
Jacksonville: 20.6
vs
Philadelphia: 15.4
Yards Per Play (L5)
+24.4% more
Jacksonville: 5.6
vs
Philadelphia: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
23.5
17
JAX Score
19.0
19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
20.6 / 15.4
18.0 / 13.0
Net Passing Yards
203.0 / 145.3
306.0 / 210.0
Rushing Yards
114.0 / 110.8
102.0 / 22.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.3
0.31 / 0.4
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards
317.1 / 256.1
408.0 / 232.0
Turnovers
0.5 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play
5.6 / 4.5
6.0 / 3.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -125 / +105
→
+300 / -380
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+7.5 / -7.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5
→
41.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
2-5-0
(28.6%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -6.6
JAX
Advantage
4-2-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
1-6-0
(14.3%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -6.6
JAX
Advantage
3-3-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +1.2
JAX
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
PHI
JAX
PHI
ML
50%
3-3
57%
4-3
50%
3-3
57%
4-3
ATS
50%
3-3
29%
2-5
33%
2-4
71%
5-2
TTL
83%
5-1
50%
3-3-1
67%
4-2
67%
4-2-1
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