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TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

1-4  |  Road

24
FINAL
Thu, Oct 8 • 8:15 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

2-3  |  Home

16
Key Game
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
Riley Dixon None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
38%
📊
COWBOYS
62%
▲ Edge: +17.70% (TB)
BUCCANEERS 20% Book Odds: +400
COWBOYS 84% Book Odds: -535
Book Implied: 20% / 84.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.5
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 49.5 53%
Under 49.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Tampa Bay)
BuccaneersTB (+9.5) 0 CowboysDAL (-9.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

54.3%

Cowboys Cover

45.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-6 points

15.9%

TB By 7-13 points

14.2%

DAL By 1-6 points

16.8%

DAL By 7-13 points

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 20
26
DALLAS
Book Implied: 29.50
Simulated Score
27
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 20
24
DALLAS
Book Implied: 29.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Buccaneers Win
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Buccaneers (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.5
A
Sim Buccaneers (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.5
D
Sim o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 8, 2026 TB @ DAL 24 - 16
Dec 22, 2024 TB @ DAL 24 - 26
Jan 16, 2023 DAL @ TB 31 - 14
Sep 11, 2022 TB @ DAL 19 - 3
Sep 9, 2021 DAL @ TB 29 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +77.0% more
Dallas: 278.9 vs Tampa Bay: 157.5
First Downs (L5) +51.7% more
Dallas: 24.8 vs Tampa Bay: 16.3
Total Yards (L5) +41.2% more
Dallas: 375.4 vs Tampa Bay: 265.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +29.0% more
Dallas: 5.7 vs Tampa Bay: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 24.5 24
DAL Score 26.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.8 / 16.3 20.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 278.9 / 157.5 316.0 / 178.0
Rushing Yards 96.5 / 108.4 50.0 / 241.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.34 / 0.66
Total Yards 375.4 / 265.9 366.0 / 419.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.9 3.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 4.4 6.7 / 6.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +170 / -205 → +400 / -535 ↑
8%TICKETS92%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +9.5 / -9.5 ↑
27%TICKETS73%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 49.5 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
DAL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
DAL Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.0
DAL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
TB
DAL
TB
ML
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
75% 3-1-1
50% 2-2-1
100% 4-0-1
100% 4-0-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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