Home / NHL Projections NHL / Kings @ Avalanche LA @ COL

LOS ANGELES

KINGSLA

0-1-0  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Sep 30 • 10:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

AVALANCHECOL

1-0-0  |  Home

8
Goaltending
Darcy Kuemper
GOALTENDER

Darcy Kuemper

#35 | Goaltender
@
Mackenzie Blackwood
GOALTENDER

Mackenzie Blackwood

#39 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Darcy Kuemper None-None 8.08 0.724 --
Mackenzie Blackwood None-None 4.00 0.871 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
8.08 GAA Ldr 4.00
0.724 Save % Ldr 0.871
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
27%
📊
AVALANCHE
73%
▲ Edge: +5.70% (COL)
KINGS 37% Book Odds: +170
AVALANCHE 67% Book Odds: -205
Book Implied: 37% / 67.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.5 42%
Under 6.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
COLORADO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Colorado)
KingsLA (+1.5) 0 AvalancheCOL (-1.5)
Colorado Avalanche (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

21.2%

Avalanche Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around COL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

LA By 1 goal

8.6%

LA By 2-3 goals

5.5%

COL By 1 goal

18.9%

COL By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 2.50
3.8
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 2.50
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Avalanche Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim Avalanche Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Avalanche (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Kings (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 LA @ COL 4 - 8
Apr 26, 2026 COL @ LA 5 - 1
Apr 23, 2026 COL @ LA 4 - 2
Apr 19, 2026 LA @ COL 1 - 2
Mar 2, 2026 COL @ LA 4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +18.2% more
Colorado: 30.8 vs Los Angeles: 26.0
Faceoff % (L5) +6.8%
Colorado: 53.4% vs Los Angeles: 46.6%
Power Play % (L5) +47.8%
Los Angeles: 48.3% vs Colorado: 0.6%
Hits (L5) +26.9% more
Los Angeles: 36.3 vs Colorado: 26.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LA Score 2.2 4
COL Score 3.8 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 9.8 / 12.1 15.0 / 15.0
Faceoff % 53.4 / 46.6 36.2 / 63.8
Hits 26.5 / 36.3 19.0 / 17.0
Power Play % 0.6 / 48.3 80.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 30.8 / 26.0 29.0 / 31.0
Takeaways 3.6 / 4.5 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -170 / +142 → +170 / -205 ↑
8%TICKETS92%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
41%TICKETS59%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 6.5 ↑
75%TICKETS25%
83%MONEY17%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
LA
COL
LA
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
NHL's Earliest Start Yields Scoring Surge and Sloppy Play
observer_reporter 1 hour, 17 minutes ago
Barkov Eyes Late November Return; Marchand Could Be Back Soon fo…
wsvn 1 hour, 37 minutes ago
Panthers Eyeing Vladimir Tarasenko as Insurance for Brad Marchan…
yardbarker 1 hour, 40 minutes ago
The Unexpected Cornerback the Steelers Regret Losing
si 1 hour, 41 minutes ago
Joseph Woll's Strong Start in Philadelphia Has Maple Leafs Fans …
yardbarker 1 hour, 57 minutes ago