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PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

1-0-0  |  Road

7
FINAL
Wed, Sep 30 • 7:30 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

0-1-0  |  Home

0
Goaltending
Arturs Silovs
GOALTENDER

Arturs Silovs

#37 | Goaltender
@
Dan Vladar
GOALTENDER

Dan Vladar

#80 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Arturs Silovs None-None 0.00 1.000 1
Dan Vladar None-None 7.04 0.816 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
0.00 Ldr GAA 7.04
1.000 Ldr Save % 0.816
1 Ldr SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
48%
📊
FLYERS
52%
▲ Edge: +3.10% (PIT)
PENGUINS 45% Book Odds: +124
FLYERS 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5 50%
Under 6.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
PenguinsPIT (+1.5) 0 FlyersPHI (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

77.3%

Flyers Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1 goal

9.2%

PIT By 2-3 goals

6.1%

PHI By 1 goal

19.1%

PHI By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.50
4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.50
4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flyers Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Penguins (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Flyers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 PIT @ PHI 7 - 0
Apr 29, 2026 PIT @ PHI 0 - 1
Apr 27, 2026 PHI @ PIT 2 - 3
Apr 25, 2026 PIT @ PHI 4 - 2
Apr 22, 2026 PIT @ PHI 2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +37.5% more
Philadelphia: 41.2 vs Pittsburgh: 30.0
Blocked Shots (L5) +32.7% more
Philadelphia: 14.7 vs Pittsburgh: 11.1
Power Play % (L5) +17.9%
Philadelphia: 20.4% vs Pittsburgh: 2.5%
Shots on Goal (L5) +29.0% more
Pittsburgh: 30.5 vs Philadelphia: 21.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 2.5 7
PHI Score 4.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.7 / 11.1 8.0 / 11.0
Faceoff % 47.2 / 46.3 62.1 / 37.9
Hits 41.2 / 30.0 28.0 / 23.0
Power Play % 20.4 / 2.5 0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 21.7 / 30.5 19.0 / 38.0
Takeaways 4.7 / 4.7 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +124 / -148 ↑
22%TICKETS78%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
72%TICKETS28%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 6.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
60%MONEY40%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
PIT
PHI
PIT
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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