MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
1-0-0 | Road
3
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
0-1-0 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jakub Dobes
#75 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Sergei Bobrovsky
#72 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes | None-None | 2.01 | 0.929 | -- |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | None-None | 3.06 | 0.875 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.01 Ldr
GAA
3.06
0.929 Ldr
Save %
0.875
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
30%
MAPLE LEAFS
70%
▲ Edge: +18.50% (TOR)
CANADIENS
54%
Book Odds: -115
MAPLE LEAFS
51%
Book Odds: -105
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 6.5
34%
Under 6.5
66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
MONTREAL
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MTL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTL)
MTL By 1 goal
9.2%
MTL By 2-3 goals
6.1%
TOR By 1 goal
19.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Montreal
2
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 2.50
Toronto
3.5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Montreal
2
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 2.50
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Canadiens (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Canadiens (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.5
A
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 29, 2026
MTL @ TOR
3 - 2
Mar 10, 2026
TOR @ MTL
1 - 3
Dec 6, 2025
MTL @ TOR
2 - 1
Nov 22, 2025
TOR @ MTL
2 - 5
Oct 8, 2025
MTL @ TOR
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+40.8% more
Toronto: 27.6
vs
Montreal: 19.6
Hits (L5)
+18.9% more
Toronto: 25.3
vs
Montreal: 21.3
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.3% more
Montreal: 29.7
vs
Toronto: 26.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTL Score
2.0
3
TOR Score
3.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
27.6 / 19.6
14.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
52.8 / 52.9
39.6 / 60.4
Hits
25.3 / 21.3
23.0 / 28.0
Power Play %
131.0 / 224.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.1 / 29.7
28.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
3.5 / 3.4
2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -115 / -105
→
-115 / -105
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MTL
TOR
MTL
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
ATS
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
TTL
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
Contextual Game News
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