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TIGRESTIGRES

3-4-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Universitario

PUEBLAPUEBLA

4-3-4  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
TIGRES
61%
DRAW
21%
PUEBLA
18%
▲ Edge: +38.70% (Puebla)
60% Book Odds: -147
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +301
19% Book Odds: +419
Book Implied: 59.50% / 24.90% / 19.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 53%
Under 2.5 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
TIGRES
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Tigres)
TigresTigres (-0.8) 0 PueblaPuebla (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

56.1% / 43.9%

Shots (On Goal)

12(4) / 10(1)

Corners

5 / 0

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Tigres UANL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tigres UANL)

Tigres UANL By 1 goal

26.1%

Tigres UANL By 2+ goals

36.9%

Puebla By 1 goal

11.1%

Puebla By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.60
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
2
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.60
0
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigres UANL Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigres UANL Win
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigres UANL (-0.75)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Tigres UANL (-0.75)
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 Tigres vs Puebla 1 - 0
Mar 4, 2026 Puebla vs Tigres 3 - 1
Aug 8, 2025 Tigres vs Puebla 7 - 0
Apr 4, 2025 Puebla vs Tigres 0 - 0
Oct 5, 2024 Tigres vs Puebla 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Tigres: 3.0 vs Puebla: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Tigres: 1.0 vs Puebla: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +33.3% more
Tigres: 3.0 vs Puebla: 4.0
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Puebla: 2.0 vs Tigres: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Puebla Score 1.0 0
Tigres UANL Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Tigres UANL (Home) vs Puebla (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Tigres UANL Share: 66.7% Puebla Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tigres UANL
Puebla
Tigres UANL
Puebla
ML
36% 4-7
45% 5-6
9% 1-10
45% 5-6
ATS
65% 6-3-1
65% 5-3-2
37% 3-6-1
67% 5-2-3
TTL
27% 3-8
40% 4-6-1
45% 5-6
45% 5-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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