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SANTOSSANTOS

4-1-6  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 11:05 PM ET
Estadio Corona

PACHUCAPACHUCA

3-4-4  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
SANTOS
35%
DRAW
31%
PACHUCA
35%
▲ Edge: +15.30% (Pachuca)
40% Book Odds: +150
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +249
35% Book Odds: +188
Book Implied: 40% / 28.70% / 34.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 48%
Under 2.75 52%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
PACHUCA
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
SantosSantos (0) 0 PachucaPachuca (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

54.9% / 45.1%

Shots (On Goal)

17(9) / 11(0)

Corners

10 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Pachuca 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Pachuca)

Santos By 1 goal

21.1%

Santos By 2+ goals

15.9%

Pachuca By 1 goal

21.1%

Pachuca By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.40
1
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
1
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.40
2
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
44% Win Prob
A
Sim Pachuca Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Santos (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Pachuca (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 Santos vs Pachuca 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Pachuca: 2.0 vs Santos: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Pachuca: 0.0 vs Santos: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +60.0% more
Pachuca: 8.0 vs Santos: 5.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +33.3% more
Pachuca: 3.0 vs Santos: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Pachuca Score 1.0 0
Santos Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Santos (Home) vs Pachuca (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Santos Share: 50.0% Pachuca Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Santos
Pachuca
Santos
Pachuca
ML
45% 5-6
36% 4-7
64% 7-4
20% 2-8
ATS
50% 5-5-1
70% 7-3-1
60% 6-4-1
20% 2-8
TTL
65% 6-3-1
55% 6-5
50% 5-5-1
30% 3-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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