Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Guadalajara vs Queretaro Guadalajara vs Queretaro

GUADALAJARAGUADALAJARA

5-4-2  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:07 PM ET
Estadio Akron

QUERETAROQUERETARO

6-2-2  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
GUADALAJARA
61%
DRAW
21%
QUERETARO
18%
▲ Edge: +32% (Querétaro)
60% Book Odds: -151
DRAW 24% Book Odds: +315
19% Book Odds: +415
Book Implied: 60.20% / 24.10% / 19.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 50%
Under 2.75 50%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
GUADALAJARA
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Guadalajara)
GuadalajaraGuadalajara (-0.8) 0 QueretaroQueretaro (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

74.6% / 25.4%

Shots (On Goal)

26(5) / 13(6)

Corners

12 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

0/1 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Guadalajara -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Guadalajara)

Guadalajara By 1 goal

26.1%

Guadalajara By 2+ goals

36.9%

Querétaro By 1 goal

11.1%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.80
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.80
0
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guadalajara Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Guadalajara Loss
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guadalajara (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Guadalajara (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u2.8 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 Guadalajara vs Queretaro 0 - 2
Jan 22, 2022 Guadalajara vs Queretaro 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +133.3% more
Guadalajara: 14.0 vs Queretaro: 6.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Guadalajara: 0.0 vs Queretaro: 1.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Guadalajara: 3.0 vs Queretaro: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +25.0% more
Queretaro: 4.0 vs Guadalajara: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Querétaro Score 1.0 2
Guadalajara Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Guadalajara (Home) vs Querétaro (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Guadalajara Share: 66.7% Querétaro Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Guadalajara
Querétaro
Guadalajara
Querétaro
ML
55% 6-5
20% 2-8
55% 6-5
20% 2-8
ATS
88% 7-1-3
62% 5-3-2
50% 4-4-3
22% 2-7-1
TTL
85% 8-1-1
56% 5-4-1
50% 5-5-1
44% 4-5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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