Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Cruz Azul vs Toluca Cruz Azul vs Toluca

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

5-2-4  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 6:50 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

TOLUCATOLUCA

6-2-3  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
CRUZ AZUL
61%
DRAW
21%
TOLUCA
18%
▲ Edge: +9.60% (Toluca)
37% Book Odds: +173
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +241
37% Book Odds: +168
Book Implied: 36.60% / 29.30% / 37.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 60%
Under 3.0 40%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
CRUZ AZUL
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Cruz Azul)
Cruz AzulCruz Azul (0) 0 TolucaToluca (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

48.8% / 51.2%

Shots (On Goal)

17(7) / 18(7)

Corners

4 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Cruz Azul -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Cruz Azul)

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

26.1%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

36.9%

Toluca By 1 goal

11.1%

Toluca By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.50
1
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.50
2
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cruz Azul Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Toluca Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cruz Azul (+0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Toluca (-0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 Cruz Azul vs Toluca 3 - 3
Feb 7, 2026 Toluca vs Cruz Azul 1 - 1
Aug 23, 2025 Cruz Azul vs Toluca 1 - 0
Apr 19, 2025 Toluca vs Cruz Azul 2 - 2
Jul 20, 2024 Cruz Azul vs Toluca 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Toluca: 1.0 vs Cruz Azul: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +50.0% more
Toluca: 12.0 vs Cruz Azul: 8.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +40.0% more
Toluca: 5.0 vs Cruz Azul: 7.0
Wins (L5) +33.3% more
Toluca: 4.0 vs Cruz Azul: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Toluca Score 1.0 3
Cruz Azul Score 2.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Cruz Azul (Home) vs Toluca (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Cruz Azul Share: 66.7% Toluca Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Cruz Azul
Toluca
Cruz Azul
Toluca
ML
64% 7-4
55% 6-5
45% 5-6
55% 6-5
ATS
50% 5-5-1
44% 4-5-2
40% 4-6-1
78% 7-2-2
TTL
40% 4-6-1
30% 3-7-1
55% 6-5
60% 6-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.