Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Boise St @ Fresno St BOIS @ FRES

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

5-1  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 10:30 PM ET
Valley Children's Stadium
View Odds Details →

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

4-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
@
Jordan Malau'ulu
KEY GAME

Jordan Malau'ulu

#10 | Wide Receiver
Player
Oscar Doyle None-None
Jordan Malau'ulu None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOISE ST
48%
📊
FRESNO ST
52%
▲ Edge: +23.40% (FRES)
BOISE ST 76% Book Odds: -310
FRESNO ST 29% Book Odds: +250
Book Implied: 75.60% / 28.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 48.5 58%
Under 48.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
FRESNO STATE
Book Spread
+8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Fresno State)
Boise StBOIS (-8.5) 0 Fresno StFRES (+8.5)
Fresno State Bulldogs (+8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boise St Cover

47.2%

Fresno St Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FRES -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FRES)

BOIS By 1-6 points

16.1%

BOIS By 7-13 points

14.6%

FRES By 1-6 points

16.7%

FRES By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
25.5
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 28.50
26.5
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 20
Simulated Score
30
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 28.50
29
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Fresno St Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Boise St Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Fresno St (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Sim Fresno St (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 BOIS @ FRES 38 - 31
Nov 1, 2025 FRES @ BOIS 30 - 7
Nov 4, 2023 BOIS @ FRES 30 - 37
Dec 3, 2022 FRES @ BOIS 28 - 16
Oct 8, 2022 FRES @ BOIS 20 - 40
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +30.0% more
Boise State: 0.9 vs Fresno State: 0.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Boise State: 0.6 vs Fresno State: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +20.0% more
Boise State: 22.4 vs Fresno State: 17.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.2% more
Boise State: 208.3 vs Fresno State: 170.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 25.5 38
FRES Score 26.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 22.4 21.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 170.3 / 208.3 69.0 / 274.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.5 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 388.6 / 433.2 346.0 / 512.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -268 / +216 → -310 / +250 ↓
98%TICKETS2%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7 / +7 → -8.5 / +8.5 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 48.5
84%TICKETS16%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 13.9 ATS +/-: +4.8
FRES
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 13.9 ATS +/-: +4.8
FRES Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +1.6
FRES
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
BOIS
FRES
BOIS
ML
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
ATS
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
TTL
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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