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NORTH DAKOTA STATE

N DAKOTA STNDSU

5-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

4-2  |  Home

13
Key Game
Aaron Bickerton
KEY GAME

Aaron Bickerton

#39 | Punter
@
Matt Choules
KEY GAME

Matt Choules

#26 | Punter
Player
Aaron Bickerton None-None
Matt Choules None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N DAKOTA ST
44%
📊
UNLV
56%
▲ Edge: +8.40% (UNLV)
N DAKOTA ST 57% Book Odds: -130
UNLV 48% Book Odds: +110
Book Implied: 56.50% / 47.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.5
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 47.5 55%
Under 47.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
UNLV
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (UNLV)
N Dakota StNDSU (-2.5) 0 UNLVUNLV (+2.5)
UNLV Rebels (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Dakota St Cover

42.9%

UNLV Cover

57.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNLV -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

NDSU By 1-6 points

15.5%

NDSU By 7-13 points

13.4%

UNLV By 1-6 points

16.9%

UNLV By 7-13 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Implied: 25
26
UNLV
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
26
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Implied: 25
32
UNLV
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UNLV Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim UNLV Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UNLV (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.5
B
Sim UNLV (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.5
C
Sim o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 NDSU @ UNLV 7 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +108.0% more
UNLV: 1.6 vs North Dakota State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NDSU Score 23.5 7
UNLV Score 26.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 20.6 16.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 174.8 / 166.7 178.0 / 176.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 385.4 / 382.0 255.0 / 300.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.5 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -178 / +150 → -130 / +110 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 47.5 ↓
85%TICKETS15%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NDSU Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 15.3 ATS +/-: +2.3
UNLV
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NDSU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 15.3 ATS +/-: +2.3
UNLV Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NDSU
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -6.5
UNLV
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
NDSU
UNLV
NDSU
ML
43% 3-4
100% 5-0
57% 4-3
88% 7-1
ATS
29% 2-5
60% 3-2
71% 5-2
88% 7-1
TTL
43% 3-4
40% 2-3
29% 2-5
12% 1-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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