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SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

2-4  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 6:00 PM ET
Reser Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

4-2  |  Home

66
Key Game
Tashi Dorje
KEY GAME

Tashi Dorje

#89 | Punter
@
Caleb Ojeda
KEY GAME

Caleb Ojeda

#28 | Place kicker
Player
Tashi Dorje None-None
Caleb Ojeda None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN DIEGO ST
39%
📊
OREGON ST
61%
▲ Edge: +22% (SDSU)
SAN DIEGO ST 17% Book Odds: +500
OREGON ST 88% Book Odds: -700
Book Implied: 16.70% / 87.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 52.5 51%
Under 52.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
+14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (San Diego State)
San Diego StSDSU (+14.5) 0 Oregon StORST (-14.5)
San Diego State Aztecs (+14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San Diego St Cover

64.0%

Oregon St Cover

36.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SDSU +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

SDSU By 1-6 points

14.2%

SDSU By 7-13 points

11.3%

ORST By 1-6 points

16.9%

ORST By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 19
29.5
OREGON STATE
Book Implied: 33.50
Simulated Score
22
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 19
29
OREGON STATE
Book Implied: 33.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oregon St Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Oregon St Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI San Diego St (+14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +5.0
A
Sim San Diego St (+14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Sim u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 SDSU @ ORST 14 - 66
Sep 7, 2024 ORST @ SDSU 21 - 0
Sep 16, 2023 SDSU @ ORST 9 - 26
Sep 20, 2014 SDSU @ ORST 7 - 28
Sep 21, 2013 ORST @ SDSU 34 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +69.3% more
Oregon State: 509.1 vs San Diego State: 300.7
First Downs (L5) +63.9% more
Oregon State: 26.9 vs San Diego State: 16.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +33.0% more
Oregon State: 0.6 vs San Diego State: 0.2
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Oregon State: 0.5 vs San Diego State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 24.5 14
ORST Score 29.5 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.9 / 16.4 35.0 / 6.0
Rushing Yards 151.8 / 143.7 189.0 / 56.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.2 0.71 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.7 / 0.29
Total Yards 509.1 / 300.7 651.0 / 147.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +437 / -639 → +500 / -700 ↑
1%TICKETS99%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14 / -14 → +14.5 / -14.5 ↑
39%TICKETS61%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56 → 52.5 ↓
41%TICKETS59%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -9.6 ATS +/-: -9.1
ORST Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 19.6 ATS +/-: +16.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -9.6 ATS +/-: -9.1
ORST Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 19.6 ATS +/-: +16.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.3
ORST
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3% Total +/-: +11.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
SDSU
ORST
SDSU
ML
83% 5-1
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
62% 5-3
ATS
67% 4-2
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
TTL
50% 3-3
38% 3-5
29% 2-5
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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