Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / E Michigan @ Akron EMU @ AKR

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

4-3  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:30 PM ET
InfoCision Stadium
View Odds Details →

AKRON

AKRONAKR

1-5  |  Home

23
Key Game
Daniel Hull
KEY GAME

Daniel Hull

#39 | Punter
@
Joseph Castle
KEY GAME

Joseph Castle

#95 | Punter
Player
Daniel Hull None-None
Joseph Castle None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
E MICHIGAN
42%
📊
AKRON
58%
▲ Edge: +22.80% (AKR)
E MICHIGAN 69% Book Odds: -218
AKRON 36% Book Odds: +180
Book Implied: 68.60% / 35.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 51.5 49%
Under 51.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
AKRON
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.9 points (Akron)
E MichiganEMU (-5.5) 0 AkronAKR (+5.5)
Akron Zips (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

E Michigan Cover

40.4%

Akron Cover

59.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AKR -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AKR)

EMU By 1-6 points

15.1%

EMU By 7-13 points

12.6%

AKR By 1-6 points

17.0%

AKR By 7-13 points

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
23.8
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 28.50
27.2
AKRON
Book Implied: 23
Simulated Score
15
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 28.50
35
AKRON
Book Implied: 23
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Akron Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Akron Loss
98% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Akron (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.4
A
Sim Akron (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 EMU @ AKR 25 - 23
Oct 26, 2024 EMU @ AKR 21 - 25
Nov 14, 2023 AKR @ EMU 27 - 30
Nov 8, 2022 EMU @ AKR 34 - 28
Nov 12, 2019 EMU @ AKR 42 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +148.0% more
Akron: 2.4 vs Eastern Michigan: 0.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Eastern Michigan: 0.5 vs Akron: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EMU Score 23.8 25
AKR Score 27.2 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 21.3 19.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 136.2 / 139.6 143.0 / 136.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 336.7 / 350.1 372.0 / 413.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -229 / +188 → -218 / +180 ↑
96%TICKETS4%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6 / +6 → -5.5 / +5.5 ↑
59%TICKETS41%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51 → 51.5 ↑
82%TICKETS18%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EMU Advantage
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.6
AKR
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EMU Advantage
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.6
AKR
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
EMU
2-7-0
O: 22.2% / U: 77.8% Total +/-: -3.5
AKR
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AKR
EMU
AKR
EMU
ML
88% 7-1
67% 6-3
62% 5-3
56% 5-4
ATS
75% 6-2
56% 5-4
38% 3-5
56% 5-4
TTL
86% 6-1-1
56% 5-4
71% 5-2-1
56% 5-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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