Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Stanford @ Notre Dame STAN @ ND

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

2-4  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:30 PM ET
Notre Dame Stadium
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

6-0  |  Home

58
Key Game
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
@
Jasper Scaife
KEY GAME

Jasper Scaife

#39 | Punter
Player
Aidan Flintoft None-None
Jasper Scaife None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STANFORD
16%
📊
NOTRE DAME
84%
STANFORD --
NOTRE DAME --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 55.5 46%
Under 55.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+18.0
STANFORD
Book Spread
+39.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.5 points (Stanford)
StanfordSTAN (+39.5) 0 Notre DameND (-39.5)
Stanford Cardinal (+39.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stanford Cover

90.1%

Notre Dame Cover

9.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around STAN +18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)

STAN By 1-6 points

5.3%

STAN By 7-13 points

2.8%

ND By 1-6 points

10.0%

ND By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
17.5
STANFORD
Book Implied: 8
35.5
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 47.50
Simulated Score
17
STANFORD
Book Implied: 8
39
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 47.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Notre Dame Win
84% Win Prob
A
Sim Notre Dame Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Stanford (+39.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +18.0
A
Sim Stanford (+39.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +22.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Sim o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 STAN @ ND 7 - 58
Nov 29, 2025 ND @ STAN 49 - 20
Oct 12, 2024 STAN @ ND 7 - 49
Nov 25, 2023 ND @ STAN 56 - 23
Oct 15, 2022 STAN @ ND 16 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +171.7% more
Notre Dame: 192.1 vs Stanford: 70.7
Total Yards (L5) +50.4% more
Notre Dame: 446.4 vs Stanford: 296.8
First Downs (L5) +35.4% more
Notre Dame: 22.4 vs Stanford: 16.5
Turnovers (L5) +43.0% more
Stanford: 0.7 vs Notre Dame: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STAN Score 17.5 7
ND Score 35.5 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 16.5 26.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 192.1 / 70.7 361.0 / 58.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.62 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 446.4 / 296.8 598.0 / 202.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 0.7 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +38 / -38 → +39.5 / -39.5 ↑
86%TICKETS14%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 55.5 ↑
41%TICKETS59%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -15.6 ATS +/-: -7.9
ND Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 27.7 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -15.6 ATS +/-: -7.9
ND Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 27.7 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.4
ND
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
STAN
ND
STAN
ML
100% 7-0
75% 6-2
86% 6-1
75% 6-2
ATS
43% 3-4
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
TTL
43% 3-4
25% 2-6
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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