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JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

6-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 8:10 PM ET
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

2-4  |  Home

24
Key Game
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
@
Blake Ford
KEY GAME

Blake Ford

#97 | Place kicker
Player
Patrick Rea None-None
Blake Ford None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAMES MADISON
78%
📊
GA SOUTHERN
22%
▲ Edge: +3.20% (JMU)
JAMES MADISON 74% Book Odds: -290
GA SOUTHERN 30% Book Odds: +235
Book Implied: 74.40% / 29.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.5 (Under)
Over 51.5 42%
Under 51.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (James Madison)
James MadisonJMU (-7) 0 GA SouthernGASO (+7)
James Madison Dukes (-7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

James Madison Cover

82.3%

GA Southern Cover

17.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JMU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

JMU By 1-6 points

13.5%

JMU By 7-13 points

19.3%

GASO By 1-6 points

8.6%

GASO By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
30
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 29.20
17
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 22.20
Simulated Score
29
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 29.20
30
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 22.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI James Madison Win
78% Win Prob
A
Sim GA Southern Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI James Madison (-7) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
B
Sim GA Southern (+7) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 JMU @ GASO 27 - 24
Sep 27, 2025 GASO @ JMU 10 - 35
Oct 19, 2024 JMU @ GASO 14 - 28
Oct 14, 2023 GASO @ JMU 13 - 41
Oct 15, 2022 JMU @ GASO 38 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.5% more
James Madison: 236.5 vs Georgia Southern: 128.9
Turnovers (L5) +25.0% more
James Madison: 0.9 vs Georgia Southern: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +20.8% more
James Madison: 482.3 vs Georgia Southern: 382.1
First Downs (L5) +10.8% more
James Madison: 22.5 vs Georgia Southern: 20.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 30.0 27
GASO Score 17.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 22.5 23.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 128.9 / 236.5 122.0 / 209.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 382.1 / 482.3 465.0 / 438.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -310 / +250 → -290 / +235 ↑
98%TICKETS2%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7.5 / +7.5 → -7 / +7 ↑
83%TICKETS17%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 51.5
55%TICKETS45%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 23.1 ATS +/-: +10.7
GASO
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 23.1 ATS +/-: +10.7
GASO Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +7.3
GASO
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GASO
JMU
GASO
JMU
ML
71% 5-2
75% 6-2
57% 4-3
50% 4-4
ATS
14% 1-6
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
TTL
14% 1-6
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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