Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Coastal @ Marshall CCU @ MRSH

COASTAL CAROLINA

COASTALCCU

2-4  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

3-3  |  Home

21
Key Game
Roland Podesta
KEY GAME

Roland Podesta

#42 | Punter
@
Cooper Heimbach
KEY GAME

Cooper Heimbach

#91 | Punter
Player
Roland Podesta None-None
Cooper Heimbach None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COASTAL
38%
📊
MARSHALL
62%
COASTAL 39% Book Odds: +154
MARSHALL 65% Book Odds: -185
Book Implied: 39.40% / 64.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
57.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.5 (Under)
Over 57.5 38%
Under 57.5 62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
-4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Marshall)
CoastalCCU (+4.5) 0 MarshallMRSH (-4.5)
Marshall Thundering Herd (-4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Coastal Cover

36.0%

Marshall Cover

64.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MRSH -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

CCU By 1-6 points

14.2%

CCU By 7-13 points

11.3%

MRSH By 1-6 points

16.9%

MRSH By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Implied: 26.50
28.5
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 31
Simulated Score
22
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Implied: 26.50
33
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 31
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Marshall Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Marshall Loss
86% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marshall (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Marshall (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Sim u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 CCU @ MRSH 27 - 21
Oct 30, 2025 MRSH @ CCU 27 - 44
Nov 16, 2024 CCU @ MRSH 19 - 31
Oct 28, 2023 MRSH @ CCU 6 - 34
Oct 29, 2022 CCU @ MRSH 24 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.0% more
Marshall: 157.1 vs Coastal Carolina: 126.7
Total Yards (L5) +22.0% more
Marshall: 438.9 vs Coastal Carolina: 359.7
First Downs (L5) +16.4% more
Marshall: 22.8 vs Coastal Carolina: 19.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CCU Score 23.5 27
MRSH Score 28.5 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 19.6 25.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 157.1 / 126.7 221.0 / 235.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.6 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 438.9 / 359.7 505.0 / 308.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.8 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -153 → +154 / -185 ↑
15%TICKETS85%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +4.5 / -4.5 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56 → 57.5 ↑
33%TICKETS67%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CCU
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
MRSH Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -9.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CCU Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
MRSH
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -9.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CCU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -1.5
MRSH
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -4.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
CCU
MRSH
CCU
ML
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
ATS
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
TTL
57% 4-3
50% 3-3-1
57% 4-3
67% 4-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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