Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami OH @ UMass M-OH @ MASS

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

3-3  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 2:00 PM ET
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
View Odds Details →

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

4-2  |  Home

19
Key Game
Kellan McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Kellan McLaughlin

#38 | Place kicker
@
Edward Phillipson
KEY GAME

Edward Phillipson

#43 | Punter
Player
Kellan McLaughlin None-None
Edward Phillipson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI OH
66%
📊
UMASS
34%
MIAMI OH 69% Book Odds: -225
UMASS 35% Book Odds: +185
Book Implied: 69.20% / 35.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 (Over)
Over 44.5 68%
Under 44.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MIAMI (OH)
Book Spread
-6
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami (OH))
Miami OHM-OH (-6) 0 UMassMASS (+6)
Miami (OH) RedHawks (-6) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami OH Cover

69.1%

UMass Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around M-OH -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (M-OH)

M-OH By 1-6 points

16.5%

M-OH By 7-13 points

19.3%

MASS By 1-6 points

12.9%

MASS By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
30
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 25.20
23
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Implied: 19.20
Simulated Score
25
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 25.20
26
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Implied: 19.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Miami OH Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim UMass Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Miami OH (-6) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim UMass (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Sim o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 M-OH @ MASS 20 - 19
Sep 28, 2024 MASS @ M-OH 20 - 23
Sep 9, 2023 M-OH @ MASS 41 - 28
Nov 21, 2015 M-OH @ MASS 20 - 13
Oct 4, 2014 MASS @ M-OH 41 - 42
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +16.6% more
Miami (OH): 19.6 vs Massachusetts: 16.4
Total Yards (L5) +9.1% more
Miami (OH): 355.1 vs Massachusetts: 322.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.6% more
Massachusetts: 155.7 vs Miami (OH): 106.2
Turnovers (L5) +29.0% more
Massachusetts: 1.0 vs Miami (OH): 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
M-OH Score 30.0 20
MASS Score 23.0 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.4 / 19.6 17.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 155.7 / 106.2 65.0 / 165.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 322.8 / 355.1 319.0 / 260.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +110 → -225 / +185 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -6 / +6 ↓
62%TICKETS38%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 44.5 ↓
80%TICKETS20%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
M-OH Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -2.7
MASS
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
M-OH
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -2.7
MASS Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
M-OH
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.4
MASS
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MASS
M-OH
MASS
M-OH
ML
50% 3-3
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
ATS
50% 3-3
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
TTL
33% 2-4
71% 5-2-1
50% 4-4
71% 5-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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