Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kent State @ W Michigan KENT @ WMU

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

2-4  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:30 PM ET
Waldo Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

4-2  |  Home

38
Key Game
Jake Stoeckel
KEY GAME

Jake Stoeckel

#97 | Punter
@
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
Player
Jake Stoeckel None-None
Ryan Millmore None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENT STATE
22%
📊
W MICHIGAN
78%
▲ Edge: +3.90% (KENT)
KENT STATE 18% Book Odds: +451
W MICHIGAN 86% Book Odds: -598
Book Implied: 18.10% / 85.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.5
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 (Over)
Over 43.5 69%
Under 43.5 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+13.5
KENT STATE
Book Spread
+14
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Kent State)
Kent StateKENT (+14) 0 W MichiganWMU (-14)
Kent State Golden Flashes (+14) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kent State Cover

83.3%

W Michigan Cover

16.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KENT +13.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENT)

KENT By 1-6 points

8.2%

KENT By 7-13 points

5.0%

WMU By 1-6 points

13.2%

WMU By 7-13 points

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
19.5
KENT STATE
Book Implied: 14.80
33
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 28.80
Simulated Score
13
KENT STATE
Book Implied: 14.80
33
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 28.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI W Michigan Win
78% Win Prob
A
Sim W Michigan Win
98% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kent State (+14) Loss
Proj Spread: +13.5
D
Sim W Michigan (-14) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.5
A
Sim o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 KENT @ WMU 7 - 38
Oct 26, 2024 KENT @ WMU 21 - 52
Oct 16, 2021 KENT @ WMU 31 - 64
Nov 8, 2017 KENT @ WMU 20 - 48
Nov 8, 2016 WMU @ KENT 37 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.6% more
Western Michigan: 155.6 vs Kent State: 106.9
Total Yards (L5) +9.1% more
Western Michigan: 314.9 vs Kent State: 288.5
First Downs (L5) +9.1% more
Western Michigan: 17.8 vs Kent State: 16.3
Turnovers (L5) +70.1% more
Kent State: 1.6 vs Western Michigan: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENT Score 19.5 7
WMU Score 33.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 16.3 26.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 155.6 / 106.9 204.0 / 75.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 314.9 / 288.5 466.0 / 298.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +432 / -630 → +451 / -598 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14 / -14 → +14 / -14
94%TICKETS6%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 43.5 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENT
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -15.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
WMU Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENT Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -15.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
WMU
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
KENT
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: -4.4
WMU
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
KENT
WMU
KENT
ML
88% 7-1
100% 8-0
62% 5-3
100% 8-0
ATS
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
38% 3-5
TTL
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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