Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Buffalo @ Toledo BUFF @ TOL

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

3-3  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:30 PM ET
Glass Bowl
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

4-2  |  Home

8
Key Game
Oliver Hautanen
KEY GAME

Oliver Hautanen

#31 | Place kicker
@
Markus Meincke
KEY GAME

Markus Meincke

#47 | Punter
Player
Oliver Hautanen None-None
Markus Meincke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALO
19%
📊
TOLEDO
81%
▲ Edge: +6.80% (BUFF)
BUFFALO 13% Book Odds: +700
TOLEDO 92% Book Odds: -1099
Book Implied: 12.50% / 91.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 54.5 58%
Under 54.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+15.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
+18.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Buffalo)
BuffaloBUFF (+18.5) 0 ToledoTOL (-18.5)
Buffalo Bulls (+18.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buffalo Cover

85.8%

Toledo Cover

14.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUFF +15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUFF)

BUFF By 1-6 points

7.2%

BUFF By 7-13 points

4.1%

TOL By 1-6 points

12.2%

TOL By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
22
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 18
37
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 36.50
Simulated Score
13
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 18
46
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 36.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Toledo Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Sim Toledo Loss
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Buffalo (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: +15.0
C
Sim Toledo (-18.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Sim o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 BUFF @ TOL 23 - 8
Oct 12, 2024 TOL @ BUFF 15 - 30
Oct 31, 2023 BUFF @ TOL 13 - 31
Oct 22, 2022 TOL @ BUFF 27 - 34
Nov 20, 2019 TOL @ BUFF 30 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +52.5% more
Toledo: 497.5 vs Buffalo: 326.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.4% more
Toledo: 232.8 vs Buffalo: 158.0
First Downs (L5) +16.5% more
Toledo: 23.2 vs Buffalo: 19.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Toledo: 0.5 vs Buffalo: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUFF Score 22.0 23
TOL Score 37.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 19.9 16.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 232.8 / 158.0 105.0 / 180.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.21 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 497.5 / 326.3 308.0 / 351.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.6 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +850 / -1449 → +700 / -1099 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +19.5 / -19.5 → +18.5 / -18.5 ↓
94%TICKETS6%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 54.5 ↓
68%TICKETS32%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUFF
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
TOL Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUFF
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
TOL Advantage
4-3-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BUFF
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +0.8
TOL
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
BUFF
TOL
BUFF
ML
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
88% 7-1
88% 7-1
ATS
43% 3-4-1
50% 4-4
57% 4-3-1
62% 5-3
TTL
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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