Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UAB @ Memphis UAB @ MEM

UAB

UABUAB

3-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

5-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Oliver Straw
KEY GAME

Oliver Straw

#46 | Punter
@
Philippe Laforge
KEY GAME

Philippe Laforge

#80 | Place kicker
Player
Oliver Straw None-None
Philippe Laforge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UAB
15%
📊
MEMPHIS
85%
UAB 17% Book Odds: +490
MEMPHIS 87% Book Odds: -675
Book Implied: 16.90% / 87.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 54.5 53%
Under 54.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
-15.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Memphis)
UABUAB (+15.5) 0 MemphisMEM (-15.5)
Memphis Tigers (-15.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UAB Cover

9.9%

Memphis Cover

90.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MEM -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

UAB By 1-6 points

5.3%

UAB By 7-13 points

2.8%

MEM By 1-6 points

10.0%

MEM By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
19
UAB
Book Implied: 19.50
37
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 35
Simulated Score
19
UAB
Book Implied: 19.50
39
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 35
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Memphis Win
85% Win Prob
A
Sim Memphis Win
98% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Memphis (-15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Sim Memphis (-15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Sim o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 UAB @ MEM 13 - 38
Oct 18, 2025 MEM @ UAB 24 - 31
Nov 16, 2024 UAB @ MEM 18 - 53
Oct 21, 2023 MEM @ UAB 45 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +58.7% more
Memphis: 550.7 vs UAB: 347.1
First Downs (L5) +39.5% more
Memphis: 27.1 vs UAB: 19.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.4% more
Memphis: 245.0 vs UAB: 181.0
Turnovers (L5) +50.6% more
UAB: 1.6 vs Memphis: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAB Score 19.0 13
MEM Score 37.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.1 / 19.4 24.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 245.0 / 181.0 230.0 / 179.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 550.7 / 347.1 394.0 / 310.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.6 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +465 / -695 → +490 / -675
1%TICKETS99%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14.5 / -14.5 → +15.5 / -15.5 ↑
30%TICKETS70%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 54.5 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAB
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
MEM Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAB
3-3-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
MEM
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UAB
1-6-0
O: 14.3% / U: 85.7% Total +/-: -5.5
MEM
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
UAB
MEM
UAB
ML
88% 7-1
71% 5-2
75% 6-2
100% 7-0
ATS
75% 6-2
50% 3-3-1
38% 3-5
83% 5-1-1
TTL
38% 3-5
43% 3-4
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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