Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Rice @ East Carolina RICE @ ECU

RICE

RICERICE

1-5  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 1:00 PM ET
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

3-2  |  Home

28
Key Game
Charlie Durkin
KEY GAME

Charlie Durkin

#29 | Punter
@
Tomas O'Halloran
KEY GAME

Tomas O'Halloran

#48 | Punter
Player
Charlie Durkin None-None
Tomas O'Halloran None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RICE
17%
📊
EAST CAROLINA
83%
▲ Edge: +3.40% (ECU)
RICE 25% Book Odds: +300
EAST CAROLINA 79% Book Odds: -380
Book Implied: 25% / 79.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.5
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 (Over)
Over 45.5 66%
Under 45.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.5
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
-10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (East Carolina)
RiceRICE (+10) 0 East CarolinaECU (-10)
East Carolina Pirates (-10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rice Cover

11.9%

East Carolina Cover

88.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ECU -16.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

RICE By 1-6 points

6.2%

RICE By 7-13 points

3.4%

ECU By 1-6 points

11.1%

ECU By 7-13 points

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
18
RICE
Book Implied: 17.80
34.5
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 27.80
Simulated Score
21
RICE
Book Implied: 17.80
27
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 27.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI East Carolina Win
83% Win Prob
A
Sim East Carolina Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI East Carolina (-10) Win
Proj Spread: -16.5
B
Sim Rice (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: +6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.5
A
Sim o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 RICE @ ECU 12 - 28
Sep 30, 2023 ECU @ RICE 17 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +61.3% more
East Carolina: 2.2 vs Rice: 1.4
Total Yards (L5) +19.7% more
East Carolina: 380.2 vs Rice: 317.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
East Carolina: 0.3 vs Rice: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.1% more
Rice: 223.9 vs East Carolina: 147.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RICE Score 18.0 12
ECU Score 34.5 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.1 / 17.1 19.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 147.5 / 223.9 234.0 / 164.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.31 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 380.2 / 317.6 376.0 / 233.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.4 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +304 / -404 → +300 / -380 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10 / -10 → +10 / -10
91%TICKETS9%
92%MONEY8%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50 → 45.5 ↓
81%TICKETS19%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RICE
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -10.8 ATS +/-: -1.1
ECU Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RICE Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.8 ATS +/-: -1.1
ECU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
RICE
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.4
ECU
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
RICE
ECU
RICE
ML
57% 4-3
100% 8-0
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
ATS
43% 3-4
38% 3-5
29% 2-5
25% 2-6
TTL
43% 3-4
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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